Can YouTube predict the X-Factor winner?

The popularity of X Factor means that it has already become watercooler talk across the UK, and, as is so often the case, a major feature in the most watched list of YouTube.

So, as the fallout from the first week continues, TechRadar wondered just how accurate the internet proves to be when the winner is announced in December.

A brief trawl through the figures on YouTube gives our first chance to draw some early conclusions.

Johnson dominant

First of all, Danyl Johnson – already a worldwide internet hit for his first audition – is a clear winner in terms of view for his first live appearance.

His rendition of And I Am Telling You I'm Not Going by Jennifer Hudson has attracted a fairly hefty 470k views.

To put that in context – it is nearly twice as many as the next viewed video – which is teenage Joe McElderry (261k). Third place goes to Jamie 'Afro' Archer with 237k narrowly ahead of Dagenham's finest Stacey Solomon (236k).

Bringing up the top five is Lucie Jones (who we are told with startling regularity is from a 'Small Village In Wales') and 200k views.

Another (x)factor to bear in mind is the fact that Johnson hit the headlines because of a rather odd comment from judge Danni Minogue who joked about his sexuality in one of the most cringeworthy TV moments of the year.

Odds fact

And, if you look at the bookies' odds, the top five YouTube favourites also have the most favourable odds.

So our top five from YouTube goes: Johnson, McElderry, Archer, Solomon, Jones and the top five (in order) from Sky Bet are: Johnson, McElderry, Solomon, Jones, Archer.

So, for those looking to the internet for some top tips for winner, there may not be much of a margin.

However, there may well be a slightly better bet (and we take no responsibility for our cod predictions costing you hard-earned cash) if you want a tip about who will go next.

Loney road

The Sky Bet favourites for elimination next Saturday are the obnoxious Irish twins John and Edward followed by Rachel Adedeji (who was in the bottom two but more popular with the public than Pussycat Trolls Kandy Rain).

But, the least viewed video on YouTube is from Ricky Loney – the wet, hat-wearing Glaswegian who has been roundly outperformed by his eyebrow on every occasion.

So our predictions – from YouTube at least – is that Danyl Johnson will romp home as winner in a final with McElderry and Solomon (a hair malfunction will do for Afro) and that next week will see the exit of Loney.

Caution

But, a note of caution from HitWise, who predicted the winner of Strictly Come Dancing from search volumes but found last year's X Factor much harder.

"There is a correlation between popularity and the volume of searches for X-Factor contestants, but it's not as simple as 'searches = votes'," said HitWise Research Director Robin Goad.

"Attractive women, in particular, tend to receive lots of searches from people who may be interested in things other than their singing abilities.

"We've found that key is to dig a bit deeper into the data in order to understand who is searching for a contestant and why.

"For example, a man searching for topless photos of an X-Factor contestant is unlikely to vote in the competition, so we try to filter out those kinds of searches before making a prediction."