In 2003, I wrote a piece for PC Format making my predictions for the next ten years for the PC. We're half way through now so let's see how I'm doing so far:

Prediction 1: The PCI bus will die

Anything that can't be integrated directly into the motherboard will be turned into a USB or FireWire module, saving all sorts of problems with IRQ allocation and timing conflicts and making motherboards smaller and cheaper.

The PCI bus hasn't gone yet, but pretty much the only thing still routinely plugged into it is the sound card.

Status: Give it another 5 years

Prediction 2: The Pentium 5 will put two processors on a single chip

In the days of the hyperthreading P4, the obvious next step was to mount two separate processor cores on a single silicon die.

And why stop at two? Quad core CPUs are common now and the PS3 has eight cores (even if one of them is just used to increase production yields).

Status: Bang on

Prediction 3: An end to cables

Existing proprietary protocols for cordless keyboards and mice will be replaced with Bluetooth systems and transceivers will be standard on all new systems. We'll also have wireless speakers and wireless monitors.

Using Wi-Fi to beam screen updates using Windows Powered Smart Display technologies turns out to be more complicated than simply making computers small enough to integrate directly into the monitor.

Status: It's called an iMac

Prediction 4: The CRT monitor will be obsolete

2003 was the last year that new PCs shipped with CRT monitors by default.

Can you even buy a CRT monitor now?

Status: Well, duh!

Prediction 5: Laptops will all use projection displays

Instead of carrying a fragile and heavy TFT laptop, a device the size of a pack of cards will project an image onto the back of the seat in front of you on the aeroplane or onto a blank sheet of A4 on your desk.

Umm, yes. Not quite sure what I was thinking there. Must have got a bit carried away.

Status: Not going to happen. Ever.

Prediction 6: Screens will become horizontal

A piece of paper flat on the desk is a much more natural way to work than craning up at a vertical screen. Thinner LCD displays will just get laid horizontally for reduced eyestrain and better posture.

The trouble is that this entirely relies on stylus or touch based interaction because no one has enough room on the desk for a horizontal screen and a keyboard and mouse. This also needs tougher, flexible screens, perfect handwriting recognition, a massive price drop and some more compelling reasons to ditch the existing paradigm than slightly improved ergonomics.

Status: I can still dream

Prediction 7: Networking will become easy

Wireless base stations will just be boxes that plug into the wall where they are needed. Wi-Fi connectivity will be standard and IP addresses will be automatically allocated by the network controller chips as soon as the device is plugged in.

Yup, pretty much.

Status: Well, not easy exactly, but easier.

Prediction 8: Motherboards will absorb every component

Integrated RAM, storage, networking, sound, video and processor. Cheaper systems, better reliability and standard configurations.

It's called an XBox 360.

Status: Configurable PCs will always exist.

Prediction 9: The hard disk is doomed

The hard disk will become the bottleneck on most systems. In the long term, solid-state storage is probably the only solution.

Solid-state drives are starting to appear but they are still too expensive to oust the hard disk. I said eight years for that one so I still have a few years to go.

Status: Life in the old dog yet.

Prediction 10: PCs will become completely modular

If you are watching a DVD in the sitting room and your partner walks in with a tablet PC, it might be entirely appropriate that sounds from that system would also be sent to the room speakers and layered on top of the audio from the movie. Two keyboards could also be linked to a single PC to allow collaboration on a document, for example. And the reverse of this could be just as useful with the image from a single PC sent to several displays simultaneously or one mouse used to move the pointer on 20 PCs in a classroom.