Blu-ray: don't write it off just yet

My colleague Rob Mead wrote a contentious piece recently predicting that Blu-ray will be dead by 2012.

I'd like to agree, but I'm sceptical. I don't currently own a Blu-ray player. I've played around with the Sony BDP-S500 and the PlayStation 3, and I've got an old HD DVD deck that upscales my existing DVD collection. But it's only a matter of time before I buy into Blu-ray. At the very least, it's an excuse to buy a PlayStation 3.

Blu-ray is the only way

At first, I was happy to upscale DVDs rather than upgrade to Blu-ray. Modern DVD upscalers are good at producing a 'near HD' image - rezzing up the detail and smoothing out distracting jaggies.

The trouble is, once you've tasted full-fat HD it's difficult to go back. It's a game-changer. If you own a Sky+ box, would you really go back to fiddly timed recordings? Not a chance. Would you want to go back to reading a traditional map after you've used a sat nav? Again, no.

Blu-ray will ultimately replace DVD. It's not a question of 'if' but 'when'. The analysts at Parks Associates recently predicted that worldwide Blu-ray player sales will rise by 800 per cent over the next four years. While Paramount recently enjoyed huge first-week sales for Iron Man on Blu-ray.

Admittedly, 500,000 Blu-ray sales for Iron Man needs to be put in perspective - Paramount also sold 7.2 million Iron Man DVDs. But while Blu-ray sales are still small potatoes, the format is chipping away at DVD's dominance like a coal miner working with a spoon.

Is the internet a threat to Blu-ray?

There is a good chance that Blu-ray is the last optical disc format that we'll need. DVD was first introduced in 1996, so it's enjoyed a successful 12 year run. In comparison, Blu-ray is barely two years old, its launch muddled by a costly battle with HD DVD that didn't encourage consumers to buy.

Even a modest 10-year lifespan for Blu-ray will take the format well into 2016. Improvements to technology promise storage capacity increases from 50GB to 100GB, 200GB and 500GB, giving Blu-ray the ability to develop beyond its original specification. If 4K Ultra HD offers four times the resolution of 1080p HD, you'll need a disc with four times the storage capacity.

HD movie downloads are often cited as the biggest threat to Blu-ray's future. They'll undoubtedly become more popular, but we're still in early adopter territory. Broadband isn't fast enough, while existing online services like Tiscali's Movies Now, iTunes and LoveFilm.com don't make it easy to watch what you've downloaded on a TV. For a mainstream audience, Blu-ray is ideal.

Blu-ray suffered from early incompatibility problems - unlike HD DVD it wasn't a nailed down standard when Sony first launched it. With the benefit of hindsight, some of the early Profile 1.0 Blu-ray players weren't worth buying as they couldn't be upgraded to support later versions of the Blu-ray firmware.

From PlayStation 3 to PlayStation 4

Public indifference, much like my indifference, is no doubt fuelled by two factors: (1) DVD is fine, thanks. And (2) Blu-ray players are still too pricey. IMHO, when a Blu-ray player can be picked up for £50 in a supermarket, that'll be the moment that the format has achieved its aim of replacing DVD.

Blu-ray adoption might not take as long as people think. David Jessen, Disney's VP of Blu-ray and DVD creative production, has said that he expects Blu-ray sales to eclipse DVD sales in the next two years. Falling hardware costs and must-have movies will ultimately drive sales.

When it launched the PS3, Sony suggested that it would have a 10-year lifespan. And if Sony is planning a PS4, then it will probably need to include a Blu-ray drive to tick the 'backwards compatibility' box.

Those rumours about a Blu-ray add-on for the Xbox 360 just won't go away, either. And rumours have started swirling about Apple including a Blu-ray drive in its next wave of MacBook models.

I don't know about you, but the future of Blu-ray looks pretty bright.