'The internet is not connected' — Iran's 88-day blackout begins to lift, but traffic remains under 50%

• Iran's internet is beginning to partially recover after an 88-day shutdown
• Yet, national traffic remains under 50% of normal levels as of Wednesday
• Digital rights experts warn that the historic blackout is far from over

The internet in Iran is slowly being restored after a "near-complete shutdown" was enforced on February 28 at the onset of the conflict with the US and Israel.

Iran’s first vice president, Mohammad Reza Aref, took to the long-blocked social media platform X to share the news. This followed a report on Monday that Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian had issued an order to reopen international internet ‌access.

"In line with the esteemed president’s mission and in fulfillment of the government’s promise, the first step toward free and regulated access to cyberspace has been taken," Reza Aref wrote on X on Tuesday.

The lifting of restrictions has been confirmed on both fixed and mobile connections by various internet watchdogs, including Cloudflare Radar. However, Iran's internet experts are not ready to celebrate just yet.

Amir Rashidi, Director of Internet Security and Digital Rights at the Miaan Group, warned that "the internet is not connected," with traffic well under 50% of normal levels. "The disruption volume on the network is very high," Rashidi wrote on X on Wednesday.

Doug Madory, director of internet analysis at Kentik, echoed this assessment, comparing the partial internet restoration to the fluctuating network conditions seen between the first wave of internet restrictions begun on January 8 and the February 28 shutdown.

Talking to TechRadar, Madory confirmed that in the past day, traffic volume topped out at around 41% of normal levels. "This is also lower than what we were seeing during the partial restoration between Jan 27 and Feb 28," he added.

Full internet restoration will likely be a slow process. On Tuesday, the Guardian reported that Iran’s communications minister, Sattar Hashemi, had said confirmed that restoring the internet would happen gradually.

The internet shutdown isn't over yet

People in Iran have been living in digital darkness for 88 consecutive days, marking the longest internet shutdown in the country's history.

While the easing of restrictions is a much-needed development, Rashidi warned that "it's too early to say the shutdown is over," arguing the move may only be an attempt to generate "a limited sense of public relief."

Madory also dubbed the partial restoration of the internet "a very positive development," in a bid to provide "limited relief" to the people of Iran. "But the country is still a long way from returning to pre-January 8 levels of connectivity," Madory told TechRadar.

However, residents are not wasting any time finding ways to get back online. Proton VPN, a popular free VPN service, has already recorded massive spikes in signups from the country beginning Tuesday afternoon.

According to previous reports, Iran is moving toward a permanent whitelisting system. In this scenario, it would mean most of the country's 90 million citizens would only be able to access a small list of state-approved websites and apps — making the use of a VPN significantly harder, if not impossible.

Data from Kentik suggests that limited connectivity had already been restored to a privileged few, such as government officials, loyalists, and select businesses, as early as April.

It remains difficult to determine exactly which platforms are accessible or which connections are fully stable at this stage. Talking to TechRadar, Madory said he doesn't expect full internet access to get back anytime soon.

Limited connections, Madory explains, may cause VPN services and other censorship circumvention tools to fail. "And that may be an objective," he added.

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