If Microsoft is secretly readying its next Xbox to succeed the Xbox 360, then surely Sony must be working on a PlayStation 4?
Speculation is rife that the next console battle will be fought around 2011-2012. This is when Crytek's CEO Cevat Yerli and industry analyst Colin Sebastian believe that a potential Xbox 720 and PS4 could appear.
Recycling PS3 for PS4
To imagine what a PS4 might be capable of we should look at what the current PS3 doesn't have or doesn't do well. For starters, Sony will need to closely integrate the hardware and software development for its next console.
According to SCEA's CEO Jack Tretton: "The hardware guys developed the [PlayStation 3] fairly independently, then dumped it onto the software guy's lap, effectively saying 'do something with it.'"
Considering that Sony spent around $3 billion developing the PS3, it seems likely that it will use an improved version of the Cell processor for a PS4. IBM has already released an improved version of the Cell for its blade servers. The PowerXCell 8i is a 65nm chip, with support for 32GB of DDR2 memory and eight fully-functional SPEs (compared to seven on the PS3).
The advantage of recycling the Cell is that Sony could retain a familiar development environment and use existing code libraries. The modular design of the Cell architecture could also allow extra Synergistic Processing Elements (SPEs) to be added to future chips. Twenty or more SPEs might be possible on a single 32nm Cell processor.
And if increasing the on-chip SPEs isn't an option in the proposed 2011-2012 time frame, then a PS4 could incorporate multiple Cell chips. IBM's Cell roadmap includes a PowerXCell 32iv, which appears to feature four PPEs (Power Processor Elements) and 32 SPEs, ie four Cell chips running in parallel.
Inside the PlayStation 4
If the PS4 is a revamp of the PS3, we're likely to see some obvious technology upgrades – 802.11n to replace the existing 802.11b/g chipset; an external power supply (to reduce the size of the box and to improve cooling); a massive hard disk; new graphics processor and an increase in the onboard memory.
The memory architecture in the PS3 splits 512MB equally between graphics and application use and it's been suggested that this limits developer freedom. You'd expect the PS4 to address this issue, giving developers more dedicated memory in which to load game levels. Although it's worth pointing out that the PS3 (and any future Cell-based consoles) can use the SPEs for maths-intensive tasks like physics.
New graphics processor
What about a replacement for the PS3's NVIDIA-built RSX graphics processor? We've already speculated that Microsoft could use Intel's general purpose Larrabee chip in its next Xbox to handle real-time physics and AI. Rumours also suggest that Intel is pimping Larrabee to Sony for the PS4.
Like any Xbox 360 replacement, the PS4 is also going to have a much bigger hard disk. This will be in readiness for a wealth of downloadable content that will include games, demos, music, movies and TV shows. A terabyte HDD isn't out of the question. And in a world that will increasingly be looking to online services for content, does any PlayStation 4 still need a Blu-ray drive?
A PS4 without Blu-ray?
While the PS3 was instrumental in helping Blu-ray beat off HD DVD, there's a strong argument for dropping an optical drive from the PS4 altogether. Console owners are already downloading gigabytes-worth of game demos, video trailers, full-length movies and TV shows. With a giant hard disk in the PS4, games could simply be piped straight to the console on release day; long install/level load times would be eliminated.
Along with the Cell processor, the Blu-ray drive is one of the PS3's most expensive components. The PS3's high price has forced it into third place behind the Nintendo Wii and Xbox 360. Sony will be keen not to price itself out of the next console battle.
As Acclaim boss Dave Perry recently claimed: "Because of the cost of making the PlayStation 3 and because they sold it at a loss, Sony basically has pretty much no chance of making money on the PS3, because it's lost more money than they made during the entire peak of the PlayStation 2 – it's not going to happen again for Sony."
Sony can't simply slash its prices like Microsoft has recently. And Blu-ray is partly to blame. Billy Pidgeon, an analyst at market researcher IDC points out: "Blu-ray licensees would be threatened by pricing the PS3 below stand-alone Blu-ray players. The PS3 is a bit challenged on that side."
Chasing the dream of a digital hub
Do consumers really want a PlayStation 4 that does everything? Sony's next console needs to be a machine that plays the best games. Just like the PS2 did. The PS4 could go one of two ways – a premium all-in-one box that offers Blu-ray, integrated playTV and a much larger hard disk; or a pure games machine, stripped of its expensive technology in favour of mass market appeal?
Whatever the PS4 looks like, the final question to be asked is: when will it launch? Sony's Kaz Hirai has already given us a hint: "If you look at the history of the way we've managed our console business," he said, "we always try to hit a 10-year life cycle "
That might put any PS4 launch back to 2016. But when you consider that the PS2 is still chugging along in the shadow of the PS3, a PS4 could easily sit alongside and overlap the existence of the PS3.
Your comments (43) Click to add a new comment
doobster65
February 3rd
43. My main problem with the playstation console and games is that they should create more games with multi-player options OFF LINE. I currently have 2PS3 and a PS2 and find with the games for my PS3 that in order to play with my son that i have to send him to his room so we can play games together. I do not find this very good for family bonding, so alot of the time him and i have been resorting to playing my ps2 as we can sit together and play games. I play nascar most and have an uncle who him and i have been competitive playing nascar for many years dating back to ps1. he lives in a remote area where the internet is unavailable at the speed required for the gaming server. i don't understand why ps3 made a racing game like nascar09 1 player only OFFLINE yet ps2 nascar09 is mutiplayer OFFLINE so him and i have resorted to playing the ps2 game console instead of the ps3 which we both own for both systems. I do not really enjoy the racing games so much online as i have spent thousands of hours tuning cars and have found that if someone is losing they tend to ruin the experience by quiting/driving backwards trying to hit you. In 2004 i was ranked #11 for tiger woods golf and was running into many people who again quit when they were getting beat rather than take a loss,affecting my stats as far as online was concerned. I would not consider buying ps4 or any other system as they seem to be focussed to the online gameplay rather than enjoying games in the company of friends and family. I get this enjoyment out of the ps2 system and would not update to a newer up to date system. As i spend more time playing the ps2 and find that my ps3 is collecting dust because most of the games come out for 1 player only offline and that is not for a family man wanting to play video games with his children as 1 form of bonding.
ty doobster
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j_mac
January 31st
42. i think 3d would deffinatly be the way to go but i think the price is the main topic, the ps3 was so damn expensive i couldnt get one for ages, the price is the killer guys, screw blueray, screw the expensive useless stuff, if people want to watch a blueray dvd they should buy s blueray dvd player, ps4 should be all about the gamers. people who arent gamers dont buy a $1000 game machine to watch s blueray dvd, find a way to lower the price without selling at a loss and the sales will tripple i garantee it.
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mattu12
January 27th
41. Consumers are thinking of 3D TV and 3D Blu-ray. I Would Like to see Some Of That In The PS4, but that may be years away. The ultimate 3D use for the PS4 would Be PS4 3D Gaming !!
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vermanarrd
January 23rd
40. I agree with some of the comments ppl have said about what the ps4 should have and shouldn’t have. I do agree it should be more focused on a GAMMING CONCLE and not a console with a bunch of toys to get ppl’s interest or half computer half gamming console.
The playstation 3 console is a very good console but its high price was a killer for a lot of ppl. $500.00CD when it first came out.
yeah the blue ray player was cool, as a added feature, but, it wasn’t a "must have". it was added as eye candy, nothing more. Sony said the blue ray player was part of the reason the PS3 was high priced (on released), so my opinion dump the blue ray player. Lets face it, most ppl when they want to watch a movie will use there DVD or blue ray player over using there PS3 console, so dump it and keep the price lower for everyone. Lower price for the consumer and more money for Sony.
Sony should also look more towards what ppl want out of a gamming system and less about what neat stuff you can jam into it. The XBOX 360 had two "MAJOR" defects in its design. 1. it over heated due to lack of breathing and components to help keep it cool (as did the PS3, but to a far lesser degree), secondly the 360 had a bad habit of scratching and burning the disc due to cheap components. the PS3 was not known for that (as far as I know) and is something that should be continued in the PS4.
The added large HDD is a good idea 1TB (or more) would be a nice feature for ppl who use a lot of memory. The option to download games an interesting idea but as someone said earlier its very time consuming so it should be added as a option and not the only way to go.
The PS3 controllers was good in its design BUT it still had a major defect, the internal battery that was intergraded into the controller wouldn’t hold a charge very well after two months and replacements would run almost the price of a new game. This problem is something Sony should conceder when designing the new PS4 controllers. Cordless controllers is a better way to go to the traditional cord controllers but not in the long run if the defect cant be fixed.
The XBOX 360 when loading up of games and in basic console start up's was better then the PS3. The PS3 was slow and took longer and became an annoying part of the PS3. sony should consider this when building the PS4 and not repeat the PS3 lagging.
The intergraded wireless adapter was a HUGE improvement to connecting to a home network for online gamming and should also be used in the future PS4.
As for the core of the PS4, i say go with a core 2 duel 3.0 (or better) with 6G of ram so it improves performance and power. It will also lesson the problems developers have when creating games and allow games to buffer more smoothly.
As for the graphics cards, go with the best out there that will enhance the power of the PS4 components.
Gamers want graphics, sound, hours of fun and affordable games and consoles. not **** and over toyed, over priced disappointments.
And one great feature the PS2 had, it gave us the choice to re-play and love the great older games on the PS1 & PS2. you took that option out on the PS3 due to cost, well were the ones paying for the consoles, give us that option back.
James
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brettz0r056
January 15th
39. reply to the last message on 38- wtf dude.. any usb or blutooth headsetwill work with ps3 online.
I would love to see the HVD in the ps4 - just the price needs to drop considerabley first lol. then full hd dvd gaming wouldnt be a problem - personally i think the developers of games need to take a page out of Polophopny Digitals book and take their time to create a game so its worth playing and has alot longer play time. Thus meaning they could full up the disc's potential 6TB of information andhave anamzing game that was well worth the wait.
The idea of a console where you can only download games is a stupid idea - lol at u saying load times and install times would be quicker - your clearly forgetting the time it woul;d take to download and install up to 50gb of information.
Please change the title "everything you need to know" etc - you KNOW nothing and it is all your own speculation
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thomashoward
December 26th 2009
38. I would like the ps4 to have a online multiplayer comms device like on xbox 360 so we can chat to our mates during gaming. But I absolutley HATE!!!! the xbox 360 lol!
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