If Microsoft is secretly readying its next Xbox to succeed the Xbox 360, then surely Sony must be working on a PlayStation 4?
Speculation has been rife that the next console battle will be fought around 2011-2012.
This is when Crytek's CEO Cevat Yerli and industry analyst Colin Sebastian believed that a potential Xbox 720 and PS4 could appear. But does the market really need another generation of hardware?
As Murray Pannel, Ubisoft's head of marketing in the UK, points out: "It would be nice [for the first parties to start talking about new hardware]... I don't think it's a requirement right here, right now, because there's enough new tech coming to the market... I genuinely think games can get better. Experiences can get more rich and varied, and the new platforms, Kinect and Move, can help enhance that."
But we want a new PlayStation!
Developers are usually the first to clamour for new consoles. Polyphony Digital boss Kazunori Yamauchi has bragged that Gran Turismo 5 goes "beyond the level of the current PlayStation." He went on to suggest that "the level of precision we've achieved [in GT5] is actually more suited to the next generation of machines".
Naughty Dog said that they 'maxed out' the PS3 with Uncharted 2.
While Halo creator Bungie has suggested that its has already pushed the Xbox 360 as far as it can go with Halo: Reach. Bungie.net community director Brian Jarrard told CVG that its next title is being "planned, engineered and designed to potentially span multiple hardware generations." That would include any potential Xbox 720 or PlayStation 4 that comes along.
Since the retirement of PS3 architect Ken Kuturagi in 2007, Sony has the opportunity to take a long look at the PS3's shortcomings and eliminate them for any future PS4. Valve's Gabe Newell famously raged to Game Informer that the PS3 was "a total disaster on so many levels" and that "Sony lost track of what customers and what developers wanted".
Sony can't afford to make the same multi-billion dollar mistake twice.
Motion gaming just a distraction
That said, you could argue that Microsoft is under more pressure to launch a next-next-gen console due to the lack of storage space on the DVDs it uses for its game discs. Sony, meanwhile, has the roomy Blu-ray format to play with, a gaggle of developers who finally understand how to program great games for its console, plus the promise that the PS3 will enjoy a 10-year life cycle.
That life cycle looks assured thanks to a new strategy of halfway-house upgrades. While Microsoft hopes to distract gamers with Kinect, Sony has been putting its efforts into developing PlayStation Home, the Move motion controller and 3D gaming. Even so, 3D games on the PS3 will only run in 720p (to ensure a smooth 60fps frame rate). For full 1080p 3D visuals, we're going to need a PlayStation 4.
Recycling PS3 for PS4
To imagine what a PS4 might be capable of we should look at what the current PS3 doesn't have or doesn't do well. For starters, Sony will need to closely integrate the hardware and software development for its next console.
According to SCEA's CEO Jack Tretton: "The hardware guys developed the [PlayStation 3] fairly independently, then dumped it onto the software guy's lap, effectively saying 'do something with it.'"
Considering that Sony spent around $3 billion developing the PS3, it seems likely that it will use an improved version of the Cell processor for a PS4. IBM has already released an improved version of the Cell for its blade servers. The PowerXCell 8i is a 65nm chip, with support for 32GB of DDR2 memory and eight fully-functional SPEs (compared to seven on the PS3).
The advantage of recycling the Cell is that Sony could retain a familiar development environment and use existing code libraries. The modular design of the Cell architecture could also allow extra Synergistic Processing Elements (SPEs) to be added to future chips. Twenty or more SPEs might be possible on a single 32nm Cell processor.
And if increasing the on-chip SPEs isn't an option in the proposed 2011-2012 time frame, then a PS4 could incorporate multiple Cell chips. IBM's Cell roadmap includes a PowerXCell 32iv, which appears to feature four PPEs (Power Processor Elements) and 32 SPEs, ie four Cell chips running in parallel.
Of course, this assumes that Sony will keep faith with the Cell and not opt for a multi-core processor that's a bit more, well, PC-like. The advantage for Sony would be that it would make the PS4 easier to program, eliminating the criticisms often flung in the PS3's direction.
In October 2011, a US analyst laid out the case that Sony is already in development works on the PS4, with a potential reveal at E3 2012.
Inside the PlayStation 4
If the PS4 is a revamp of the PS3, we're likely to see some obvious technology upgrades – 802.11n to replace the existing 802.11b/g chipset; an external power supply (to reduce the size of the box and to improve cooling); a massive hard disk; new graphics processor and an increase in the onboard memory.
The memory architecture in the PS3 splits 512MB equally between graphics and application use and it's been suggested that this limits developer freedom. You'd expect the PS4 to address this issue, giving developers more dedicated memory in which to load game levels. Although it's worth pointing out that the PS3 (and any future Cell-based consoles) can use the SPEs for maths-intensive tasks like physics.
New graphics processor
What about a replacement for the PS3's NVIDIA-built RSX graphics processor? We've already speculatedthat Microsoft could use Intel's general purpose Larrabee chip in its next Xbox to handle real-time physics and AI. Rumours also suggestthat Intel is pimping Larrabee to Sony for the PS4.
Like any Xbox 360 replacement, the PS4 is also going to have a much bigger hard disk. This will be in readiness for a wealth of downloadable content that will include games, demos, music, movies and TV shows. A terabyte HDD isn't out of the question. And in a world that will increasingly be looking to online services for content, does any PlayStation 4 still need a Blu-ray drive?
A PS4 without Blu-ray?
While the PS3 was instrumental in helping Blu-ray beat off HD DVD, there's a strong argument for dropping an optical drive from the PS4 altogether. Console owners are already downloading gigabytes-worth of game demos, video trailers, full-length movies and TV shows. With a giant hard disk in the PS4, games could simply be piped straight to the console on release day; long install/level load times would be eliminated.
Along with the Cell processor, the Blu-ray drive is one of the PS3's most expensive components. The PS3's high price has forced it into third place behind the Nintendo Wii and Xbox 360. Sony will be keen not to price itself out of the next console battle.
As Acclaim boss Dave Perry recently claimed: "Because of the cost of making the PlayStation 3 and because they sold it at a loss, Sony basically has pretty much no chance of making money on the PS3, because it's lost more money than they made during the entire peak of the PlayStation 2 – it's not going to happen again for Sony."
Sony can't simply slash its prices like Microsoft has recently. And Blu-ray is partly to blame. Billy Pidgeon, an analyst at market researcher IDC points out: "Blu-ray licensees would be threatened by pricing the PS3 below stand-alone Blu-ray players. The PS3 is a bit challenged on that side."
Chasing the dream of a digital hub
Do consumers really want a PlayStation 4 that does everything? Sony's next console needs to be a machine that plays the best games. Just like the PS2 did. The PS4 could go one of two ways – a premium all-in-one box that offers Blu-ray, integrated playTV and a much larger hard disk; or a pure games machine, stripped of its expensive technology in favour of mass market appeal?
Whatever the PS4 looks like, the final question to be asked is: when will it launch? Sony's Kaz Hirai has already given us a hint: "If you look at the history of the way we've managed our console business," he said, "we always try to hit a 10-year life cycle "
That might put any PS4 launch back to 2016. But when you consider that the PS2 is still chugging along in the shadow of the PS3, a PS4 could easily sit alongside and overlap the existence of the PS3.
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Your comments (80) Click to add a new comment
weedymuff
March 23rd 2011
80. last thing i want is them ditched blu ray after the money i've put into the ps3, ****** me off that i couldn't play ps2 games on the ps3.
What they should do is a model that does everything like you said at the end and a seperate model thats just gaming thats cheaper
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paulczar
March 18th 2011
79. I can't see either MS or Sony releasing the next generation of Consoles in 2011 or 2012 (This year or next????????)
The fact MS have only just begun advertising for staff the design the console suggests it's release is years away.
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idontknow
February 23rd 2011
78. who really needs a 1tb hardrive? lol
http://www.ps4newsblog.com
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grizzlybizzle
February 2nd 2011
77. I think leaving out the Blu-ray drive for the PS4 would be an extremely bad idea, given the amount of money people have spent on Blu-ray discs (games and movies) over the last few years.
Broadband, in the UK at least, is not yet at a level where downloading HD movies is a realistic option for the majority of people.
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corneliusw
November 17th 2010
76. The PS4 is not coming out until 2016 and by that time it will have DVR capability. I found that at http://playstation4.net/ps4/playstation-4-release-date. They have a couple different views on the release date, since Sony said PS3 is a 10 year console. But Sony has also stuck with the 6 year rule with introducing a new console which would make a playstation 4 release in 2012. I think 2016 sounds most realistic, the website had some very good points and I found other interesting things there as they appear to be the only legit and inform site for playstation 4 information. One thing I hope is that Sony price point the playstation 4 much better than they did the PS3 when it was released and keep backwards capability! I have no clue as to why they removed it from the PS3.
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noizepol
October 27th 2010
75. @mel2l
Strange, I have been happily using my PS3 for years without it breaking down at all.
Just because you had a bad experience doesn't automatically mean that PS3s are rubbish.
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mel2l
October 4th 2010
74. Faster processors, SPEs, yada yada, doesn't mean much if the damn thing doesn't last more than 6 months without crappin' on itself. I've sent my PS3 back to the farm 4 times in the last 2 years, now it just sits in a box under my desk. Meanwhile, my PS2 (you heard me, PS2) is still going strong. For me PSanything = Peice of Shiz-nit
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blazed
September 26th 2010
73. Sony has been working on a new optical drive. I'm not sure when it will arrive but it has the potential to hold up to 1 terabyte. Seeing how large a jump this is from 50 gb, it may be longer than 2012 before we see the next playstation. Sony has commented that they will never get rid of optical drives due to the fact that they operate in parts of the world where high speed internet is not available.
Other than that, it would be cool if the GPU's were capable of ray tracing. According to John Carmack of id software, this still could be about 10 years away.
Finally, I would like to see some kind of hardware that uses virtual reality by interacting directly with our nervous systems. Watch Ghost in the Shell for an example of what I am talking about. However, this may be more like 20 years away. At any rate, it should be interesting to watch and see how the technology evolves.
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ricardoshillios
September 22nd 2010
72. Oh my word. I have just read through this and every single comment about it and that is the only thing I could come up with.
All of the people saying it shouldn't be a 'multimedia center' get a grip! Sony has just won the new format war, they are not going to let that slide and considering the fact that the PS3 pretty much single handedly won the war. Selling more than 70% of the worlds Blu-Ray players. Downloading small data onto your console is also brilliant, photos, music, etc. All played through the surround sound you bought to make Killzone, uncharted or CoD sound incredible can now have the same effect on your music and video collection! No need to buy a Blu-Ray player, music system and games console, as you can now get them all through one which makes everything more tidy and CHEAPER!
Which brings me onto the second blight about price! If someone was going to use the PS3 as just a games console then yes it is more expensive than a 360, but not by much. First of all you have to pay for your live subscription - which by the way isn't MUCH better than network, then you have to add on the the rechargeable battery packs and that's before I even start on what else you'd have to buy.
If you wanted all of the othe options too it would cost you FAR more than what the PS3 costs you, £350 for one of the best Blu-Ray players on the market (and it is, check out what hi-fi, stuff and t3 magazines), a better gaming machine than the 360 ( which it is, games like halo (yawn, bored of the masterchiefs pants adventures), gears of war (you can't even jump on it ffs) and forza (which is good but is nowhere near as good as GT) Compared with uncharted, killzone and GT) but it is also a media streamer, a wifi connector and a music center. I think you'll find the PS3 the cheaper option every time.
For purley downloadable games, well... It just isn't going to happen is it. Like I said before, the inventors of blu-ray scrapping it before it had even taken off?nope not on ps4 at least anyway. Numerous reasons for this, everyone likes to have the game itself. On a 1tb hardrive you'd be limited to about 20 games, going on 50gb per game and that's not including saved games, music, video, downloadable content and various other things. I would much rather see the TB hdd for game saves, downloadable content et al and see a 60gb solid state hdd to improve on speed of loading or even completely remove it all together.
Obviously the latest updates in CPU, graphics cards and ram but I'll leave the uber geeks at Sony to decide on that one, I'm sure they know better than any of us, although I'd like to see a continuation of the cell processor maybe even improved or if I'm really lucky, doubled up and improved.
With regard to the success of the current PS3, I think a lot of you need to wake up and smell the coffee, despite what the OP said in his blog the sales of the PS3 are about to break the project even and very soon will make profit, the sales rate of PS3's this year is far better than that of the xbox or indeed the wii. The only things that have sold more are the PSP and the Nintendo DS.
So it's just about to break even and after few years on the market it could be percieved as being not as good as it could or should have been. With regard to sales this is correct, if they'd used cheaper parts, used an intel or AMD core and removed the Blu-Ray it could have been MUCH cheaper but they have developed their own processor with IBM which is much better in the server world for both performance and reliability than either of the competitors and is making money hand over fist in a lot of other industries, i.e. Televisions, blu-ray players, cameras, camcorders and laptops. I device born from the PS3 has been utilised in other areas which has raked the money in.
Another thing was the blu-ray player, the next genration in portable media. No matter what any of you sceptics say, it will be around for a while as downloadable content has massive limitations, as stated above.
What I would like to see happen is for someone like apple to come along and team up with Sony and create a console between them. I would LOVE to see some touch screen sensitive gaming on a large scale. Whoever said about holograms was correct, that is the next step. Project Natal, Kinect, Move, what ever you want still have massive limitations and when some mixture of them all come together with some kind of world you can utterly immerse yourself in that is when it should be the next genration. Not a few tweeks and adjustments. But you should just be able to sit yourself down and play with a normal controller if you wanted. Which is where the wii fails miserably.
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ricardoshillios
September 22nd 2010
71. Oh my word. I have just read through this and every single comment about it and that is the only thing I could come up with.
All of the people saying it shouldn't be a 'multimedia center' get a grip! Sony has just won the new format war, they are not going to let that slide and considering the fact that the PS3 pretty much single handedly won the war. Selling more than 70% of the worlds Blu-Ray players. Downloading small data onto your console is also brilliant, photos, music, etc. All played through the surround sound you bought to make Killzone, uncharted or CoD sound incredible can now have the same effect on your music and video collection! No need to buy a Blu-Ray player, music system and games console, as you can now get them all through one which makes everything more tidy and CHEAPER!
Which brings me onto the second blight about price! If someone was going to use the PS3 as just a games console then yes it is more expensive than a 360, but not by much. First of all you have to pay for your live subscription - which by the way isn't MUCH better than network, then you have to add on the the rechargeable battery packs and that's before I even start on what else you'd have to buy.
If you wanted all of the othe options too it would cost you FAR more than what the PS3 costs you, £350 for one of the best Blu-Ray players on the market (and it is, check out what hi-fi, stuff and t3 magazines), a better gaming machine than the 360 ( which it is, games like halo (yawn, bored of the masterchiefs pants adventures), gears of war (you can't even jump on it ffs) and forza (which is good but is nowhere near as good as GT) Compared with uncharted, killzone and GT) but it is also a media streamer, a wifi connector and a music center. I think you'll find the PS3 the cheaper option every time.
For purley downloadable games, well... It just isn't going to happen is it. Like I said before, the inventors of blu-ray scrapping it before it had even taken off?nope not on ps4 at least anyway. Numerous reasons for this, everyone likes to have the game itself. On a 1tb hardrive you'd be limited to about 20 games, going on 50gb per game and that's not including saved games, music, video, downloadable content and various other things. I would much rather see the TB hdd for game saves, downloadable content et al and see a 60gb solid state hdd to improve on speed of loading or even completely remove it all together.
Obviously the latest updates in CPU, graphics cards and ram but I'll leave the uber geeks at Sony to decide on that one, I'm sure they know better than any of us, although I'd like to see a continuation of the cell processor maybe even improved or if I'm really lucky, doubled up and improved.
With regard to the success of the current PS3, I think a lot of you need to wake up and smell the coffee, despite what the OP said in his blog the sales of the PS3 are about to break the project even and very soon will make profit, the sales rate of PS3's this year is far better than that of the xbox or indeed the wii. The only things that have sold more are the PSP and the Nintendo DS.
So it's just about to break even and after few years on the market it could be percieved as being not as good as it could or should have been. With regard to sales this is correct, if they'd used cheaper parts, used an intel or AMD core and removed the Blu-Ray it could have been MUCH cheaper but they have developed their own processor with IBM which is much better in the server world for both performance and reliability than either of the competitors and is making money hand over fist in a lot of other industries, i.e. Televisions, blu-ray players, cameras, camcorders and laptops. I device born from the PS3 has been utilised in other areas which has raked the money in.
Another thing was the blu-ray player, the next genration in portable media. No matter what any of you sceptics say, it will be around for a while as downloadable content has massive limitations, as stated above.
What I would like to see happen is for someone like apple to come along and team up with Sony and create a console between them. I would LOVE to see some touch screen sensitive gaming on a large scale. Whoever said about holograms was correct, that is the next step. Project Natal, Kinect, Move, what ever you want still have massive limitations and when some mixture of them all come together with some kind of world you can utterly immerse yourself in that is when it should be the next genration. Not a few tweeks and adjustments. But you should just be able to sit yourself down and play with a normal controller if you wanted. Which is where the wii fails miserably.
Rich
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paddstargee
September 13th 2010
70. I personally wouldn't want a console with no drive as I love to have a visible collection to have something to show for my money plus many gamers love to play a game and complete it then trade it for another we should have that freedom a lot of retailers that sell games would therefore go out of business and that's not fair all I'm saying is dlc is goodfor demos Psone games and trailers etc not full ps3 games
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richc
August 11th 2010
69. I agree with other posters that scrapping physical media is very unlikely. Consider the implications: no box, no high street sales.
Also people have a stack of DVDs and Blu-rays at home. PS3 was a trail blazer for Blu-rays and it's unlikely to desert the people that made it popular.
On the subject of add-ons Sony have a problem. They will want to promote Move, but providing all those controllers in 1 box will be expensive. Backwards compatibility suddenly seems like a good idea, rather than another way to sting the punter.
It's clear that the PS4 will need a lot more processing and graphical power. The combination of Move and 3D 1080p will be demanding. For those who need evidence see the limitations of a scene (temperature) in Little Big Planet.
I'd personally like to see Sony aiming high: check out any Siggraph videos from the past 2-3 years for what gaming graphics and physics could be like.
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romi
August 11th 2010
68. Are the electronics of PS4/Xbox720/ Wii 2 following Moore's law?
Given Apple's successful track record of recent products, when Apple release a dedicated games console twice the power of PS4/Xbox 720, it will sure to make them several billion in profits.....and Sony and microsoft will be in serious trouble for market domination.
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hatch87
August 11th 2010
67. I would imagine the people who care are probably the same people who go onto gadget/tech sites and make comments??? Ironic you mention about meeting REAL people, yet here you commenting lol
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hatch87
August 11th 2010
66. si_smith
PS4 will be much sooner than 5 years, the PS3 will still be around, same as the PS2 was. The Blu-ray drive already needs upgrading as they have more than doubled what a blu-ray disc can hold but the players need a stronger laser to read it. Sony will use the PS4 to push this through the same as the PS3 did.
Not only that but if they have lost more money than the PS2 ever made then they are going to need to get something out to turn the profits around, a company can't keep on losing money, and even though the PS3 sales are going up, I can't imagine them hitting the total sales of the PS2. Mainly because of the Xbox 360, last gen the PS2 only had the GB to compete with. Xbox was a first for MS and many gamers would of already had a PS2, plus the original Xbox was around for about a month before it was discontinued, while the PS2 carried on selling. Sony knows they don't have that this gen and other than replacement consoles, I can't see them gaining many more new customers.
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romi
August 11th 2010
65. Only 2250 days left till the launch of PS4
It will have 32 core cpus, each running at 8GHz,
10GB DDR10 Graphics ram,
Virtual reality headset glasses for super immersion gaming.
Treble the photo quality graphics games engine, leaving behind cartoon type graphics.(current gen only a practice)
5Tb Solid state super fast storage.
Integrated 4096p resolution HD freesat / PVR function
USB version 5 wireless
Blu-ray version 2.0 - 2Tb per disc, dropping 1080p for 4090p resolution
3D HD at 4k res
Geared up to utilize 1GB/sec fibre optic broadband
4096p resolution 4096 x 3072 pixel graphics.
Bluetooth version 6
And games will be totally free paid for by adverts in games.
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dyonas
August 11th 2010
64. "PlayStation 4 - everything you need to know about the PS4"
I think a better title for the 'article' would be "Everything you need to know about a slow news day"
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dyonas
August 11th 2010
63. I love that content and game makers are quick to say they want rid of Blu-ray because we all (hah!) have access to super fast broadband. Yeah.. the UK might have super fast guaranteed 2Mb connections in a year or two. WOW!
You can't get rid of Blu-ray and just hope that broadband will rescue you by vastly improving in days. They want a better solution without the hassle of coming up with one. Typical attitude really, they want more of the money.
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dmak
August 10th 2010
62. the PS4 need to keep the blu-ray drive as digital downloads will mean that gamers will be held to randsome over the price of downloads, look at gran turismo prologue for example, retailers were selling the disc version for around £17.99 while on the playstation network it was around £24.99! Downloadable games will certainly see an end to completing a game and trading it in, or second hand games being bought and sold.
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