With this year's Black Friday phone deals fast encroaching, many of us are eying up that crucial yearly or bi-yearly upgrade this November. Trading in, no doubt, is going to be the best, and in some cases, the only way to get yourself a reasonable discount on an otherwise pricey device.
We don't expect that to be any different this year. What is different, however, are massive backorder queues that several flagship devices are currently facing at many retailers and carriers. It could be we're in for a fallow crop with this year's Black Friday phone deals - especially if carriers decide to rein in their promotions in response to overwhelming demand.
So, should you be eying up a trade-in this Black Friday or just forget it and wait for the next big phone launch? It's a complicated issue - especially when you consider that old phone isn't exactly going up in value any time soon.
Timing your trade-in is crucial
You lose 31% of value if you don't trade immediately
According to a survey of 2000 phone users by the trade-in website Decluttr.com, 46% of people do not trade-in as soon as they upgrade, sometimes waiting up to 10 months to do so. In that time, their old phone will have lost 31% of its value on average according to the site's own market data.
That's a lot of value being lost while an old device is literally sitting around on a desk or in a drawer and definitely worth bearing in mind for Black Friday. If you're one of those people and have already upgraded but still have your old phone, take note, that old phone isn't going to appreciate in value - quite the opposite in fact.
Futhermore, 31% of users don't trade in their phones at all. If you're one of those people then you should really consider it. You're potentially losing out on a hefty rebate, plus - it's much better for the environment to hand it over for refurbishment or recycling. Many sites will take broken or cracked devices now too so there's not much to lose if you're replacing a device that had an unfortunate accident.
Especially if you're an Apple user
Another thing that really stood out in Decluttr's phone depreciation data is really how good Apple users have it in regards to device value over time.
Out of the three big mobile brands in the US, Apple phones depreciated the least on average - 49% over 12 months, as opposed to 64% for Google and 66% for Samsung.
This one's not a huge surprise - it's well known that iOS devices tend to hold their value the best out of all the brands. We were, however, surprised to see by how much much.
Over a two-year period (the average amount of time most users have their devices) those figures look even worse for Android. Over that time, Samsung devices depreciated at a rate of 79% depreciation and Google at a measly 80%. Apple devices, by comparison, got off rather lightly with just 66% - still not great, but much better than Android.
So, in practical terms what does this mean for this year's Black Friday phone deals? Firstly, if you have that 5G-compatible iPhone 12 sitting on your desk right now you can probably expect it to hold its value relatively well. If you want to maximize the value on that Android flagship, however, then you may want to consider trading it in sooner rather than later if you want a good rebate.
What you'll get for trading in
AT&T: save up to $800
Verizon: save up to $1,000
T-Mobile: save up to $1,000
You'll generally get anywhere from around $300 to $700 off a new device if you trade-in as part of a carrier deal, and anywhere from around $100 to $500 if you sell your device directly to a site like Decluttr. As you'd imagine, the better condition your device is in the more you'll get for it but that doesn't mean you can't trade in damaged devices - many sites will take phones with cracked screens for example.
Generally speaking, Black Friday phone deals tend to offer slightly better rebates across the board but fit into the same type of deal; namely trade-in a device, sign up to a new plan, and get a rebate on your monthly device installments. If you happen to be switching from another carrier then you'll likely be entitled to additional savings or freebies.
If you can, it's much better value to hand over that device as part of a carrier deal rather than selling your device via a marketplace site. Just remember that most of them come tied to expensive unlimited data plans that can cost you anywhere from $1,500 to $2,000 over two years - that's the catch, unfortunately.
So, you definitely should trade-in... Right?
Well, there are a couple of glaring caveats with the Decluttr report - firstly it's commissioned by a phone trade-in website and therefore undoubtedly pro-trade. Secondly, it's using its own marketplace data here aside from the trade-in rates at the major carriers like AT&T and Verizon. That means it doesn't fully paint the whole picture when it comes to real-life trade-in rates. In short, your mileage may vary depending on your carrier of choice.
A bigger issue with trading this year - especially in regards to the upcoming Black Friday phone deals - is whether there will actually be any decent promotions. Demand has really outstripped supply in the past month or with the ongoing supply crisis - so much so it could be that carriers and retailers adjust their Black Friday offerings accordingly.
For context, we've already seen the latest iPhones, Galaxy S21 devices, and now the Google Pixel 6 devices on backorder at several larger retailers and carriers this month. Some AT&T pre-orders for the new Google Pixel 6 Pro are now being set for as far back as December 16th and the iPhone 13 Pro Max is on backorder at Verizon until December 10th right now. Larger devices in particular are very much in demand right now and we don't see that changing in time for Black Friday.
The bottom line
It may be worth saving that trade-in for a shinier new device in the near future.
Trade-ins are pretty much the only way you're going to get that huge rebate on a shiny new device, be that on Black Friday or any other time of the year. Decluttr's report only highlights essentially what you probably already know - it's better to trade in your old device sooner rather than later.
That said, we're skeptical that this year's Black Friday phone deals will bring a particularly fruitful crop of promotions if market trends continue. Even more so, we're doubtful that any purchases made in the next month or so will even be delivered in a timely manner. With Black Friday and big phone launches generally being the best time to score a deal all year round, it may be worth saving that trade-in for a shinier new device in the near future.
We see that as a particularly good tactic for Samsung Galaxy users. These devices are generally released around January to February each year, which isn't too long to wait in context. If you're eying up an S21 and the Black Friday phone deals aren't more than the $700 to $800 trade-in rebates that we've been seeing recently then it might just be better to put that value into an S22 early next year.
For iPhone users, it's a much harder decision since it'll be almost a year until the next iPhone flagships roll around. In this case, it's probably best to brave those lengthy backorder queues if there are decent trade-in options over Black Friday, although we wouldn't expect too much from the carriers just yet...
