'The sub-$500 entry-level PC segment will disappear by 2028': Gartner predicts that budget computers are on borrowed time

• Gartner's new report predicts PC sales will slump by 10.4% this year
• The rising cost of RAM could make "low-margin entry-level laptops nonviable"
• The analyst firm predicts: "Ultimately, we expect the sub-$500 entry-level PC segment will disappear by 2028"

For some time, there's been a growing weight of evidence that buying a PC now, rather than waiting, is a very sensible idea to avoid further RAM-fueled price hikes with desktops and laptops — and a fresh prediction from Gartner adds to this pile.

In a new report from the analyst firm (which was spotted by VGC), Gartner observes that 'entry-level PCs face obsolescence' due to the spiking cost of RAM, which is expected to peak this year at 23% of the total bill-of-materials for a PC (on average) — up from 16% in 2025.

The bill-of-materials, known as BOM for short, is the cost of all the components that make up a PC. (From the CPU and GPU plus memory, to the SSD and motherboard, plus all the other trimmings such as fans, connectors, the power supply, and the case or chassis itself).

Ranjit Atwal, senior director analyst at Gartner, notes: "This sharp increase removes vendors' ability to absorb costs, making low-margin entry-level laptops nonviable. Ultimately, we expect the sub-$500 entry-level PC segment will disappear by 2028."

Atwal further predicts that: "In addition, rising AI PC prices will delay the projected 50% market penetration of AI PCs until 2028."

Gartner estimates that PC shipments will drop by 10.4% in 2026 compared to last year as the market weakens (and phone shipments will also drop to the tune of 8.4%, we're told).

By the end of 2026, the analyst firm foresees a 130% rise in RAM and SSD costs, which is going to increase asking prices for PCs by an estimated 17% compared to 2025, Gartner believes — a hefty hike.

Analysis: steepest contraction in PC shipments in over a decade

So, this isn't just going to be a low-end PC problem, and it fully makes sense that the higher-end of the market will take a blow from increased RAM (as well as storage) costs, too. Those devices have more breathing room in terms of their overall cost to make the hikes less impactful, of course.

Still, the broad prediction is that more expensive AI (Copilot+) laptops will lose sales momentum this year and next, not recovering until 2028, alongside the vanishing act, which is apparently going to happen with sub-$500 laptops and desktop PCs.

It's a believable enough prediction, sadly, and even if those budget PCs don't entirely disappear, I'd put money on them being much thinner on the ground as 2026 rolls onwards. HP has already said that the cost of RAM has shot up for its laptops, and indeed, the manufacturer told us that the chunk that system memory takes out of the total bill-of-materials has doubled in the space of a quarter. That's a frightening revelation, frankly, and one that more than backs up the idea that Gartner is putting forward here.

Those who feel they may need a new laptop in the near future, then, might be advised to start looking to buy one now — especially if they're searching towards the budget end of the market.

There's another prospect, of course. Rather than upgrading, people will just hold on to their existing PC for longer.

As Atwal observes: "This is the steepest contraction in device shipments witnessed in over a decade. Higher prices will narrow the range of devices available, prompting buyers to hold on to devices for longer, fundamentally altering upgrade cycles."

Gartner theorizes that holdouts waiting for PC pricing to calm down will likely mean that the average lifetime of a device will be extended by some 20% for consumers by the end of the year (and 15% for business buyers). That could mean folks keeping hold of outdated laptops running Windows 10, of course, with no updates in place (after extended support expires in October 2026) and a raft of security risks to face therein.

Whichever way you look at it, the outlook for the PC market is pretty gloomy.

The best laptops for all budgets

➡️ Read our full guide to the best laptops
1. Best overall:
Apple MacBook Air 13-inch M4
2. Best budget:
Asus Chromebook CM14
3. Best Windows 11 laptop
Microsoft Surface Laptop 13-inch
4. Best gaming:
Razer Blade 16
5. Best for pros
MacBook Pro 16-inch (M4 Pro)

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