Who'd have thought a decade ago that portable music wouldn't mean a cassette Walkman or Discman? Or that the VCR would be all but obsolete? That nobody would use fax (or even dial-up modems) any more? Or CRT?
An awful lot has changed over the last 10 years, but what technology of today will become redundant over the next decade?
We got our future-gazing hat on and came up with these eight. Don't agree? Let us know in the comments below.
1. Keyboard and mouse
How quaint! The keyboard and mouse you use every day will not exist in ten years, replaced by highly-detailed touch interfaces – think: the iPhone on a big screen – multi-touch systems that support highly complex gestures, such as circling a group of photos, tossing them around, and clicking to remove smudges.
As Jon Peddie, a consumer analyst, notes, "you" will become the interface. The computer will respond to your movements, eye-tracking, head gestures, and -- one day – your very thoughts.
2. Public Wi-Fi
802.11n may have just been ratified (finally), but it's probably too late. WiMax networks that run in major cities will negate the need for a local hotspot.
More importantly, as cities develop smart grids that allow citizens to see their power usage in real-time, electric cars report mileage and traffic info over wireless, and streaming video systems replace telephone networks, a widespread wireless network won't just be an emerging tech idea – it will be a requirement.
3. Landline phone
Pundits have predicted the death of the landline phone for years, but – according to noted analyst Michael Gartenberg – in ten years they won't exist anymore, mostly because smartphones will finally take over.
Companies have already switched almost entirely to IP based telephony, so an analog line to the home will become a distant memory. Jon Peddie says even the cell phone might not exist in ten years, replaced by a personal heads-up display that actually works and doesn't make you feel sick – tied into the cloud, snapping a live stream of photos and videos.
4. Optical discs
It's amazing that current notebooks and desktops come with an optical drive, and that we're still buying Blu-ray discs. Yet, we can't blame Microsoft and Sony.
It's really the pathetic speed of broadband, running only about 3-5Mbps in most areas. In the future, more ubiquitous fiber networks – even in rural areas – will make broadband faster.
Companies such as Akamai and Limelight are figuring out how to route traffic more effectively, and we're relying more and more on web apps. The result: software video distribution networks will finally negate the need for optical discs.
Your comments (16) Click to add a new comment
mag7ue
December 18th 2009
16. I don't necessarily disagree that land line telephones will be gone, but to say "most companies have already adopted VoIP?" I think that's a bit presumptious.
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troyguffey
November 7th 2009
15. 1. Keyboard and Mouse
They will probably still be used in the future, especially the keyboard! There's nothing like the tacticle feedback of a keyboard to help you type faster. As long as pure text is used, keyboards will still be around. The mouse movement might get replaced by eye-tracking, but then how do you decide clicking? When voice-understanding becomes mostly reliable, pure text input will decrease, but there are still environments you DON'T want to speak aloud.
2. Public Wi-Fi
Yes, I agree it might go down.
3. The Landline Phone
There's one big advantage a old-fashioned land-line phone has: it's powered by the phone company from THEIR end. If you have a power outage in a snowstorm that is killing your cell-phone, you can still call the power company up.
4. Optical Discs
Optical disks are still useful for private backups. They are longer-lived than present flash-drives, which would be the other technology for backups and software installs. Physcial storage is the ULTIMATE bandwidth. Relying TOTALLY on the Internet is for overconfident idiots.
5. Standrard Game Controls
These CAN'T really be replaced by anything less than a neural interface. What good is a body language reader when you want to sit back in your chair and play an old-style side-scroller arcade game? And there's a reason some games are called "Twitch-games"
6. The Beloved Desktop Computer
Possibly, but desktops will always have the advantage for enthusiasts who want to use fast custom hardware. Wireless technologies will ALWAYS lag behind a hard-wired in-box device.
7. Operating Systems
Computer-science-wise it's impossible as others have pointed out.
8. Blogging, the end of an era?
There's always going to be a place for the blog archive. A LOT of the forces that drive blogging today are the times that you DON'T WANT to have real-time two-way interaction with someone.
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rnojonson
October 8th 2009
14. Let's re-adjust this vision a little. Keyboards will get thin like laptop keyboards, have finger/pen pads integrated into them, wireless mice will be standard.
ATX cases will become near extinct except for gamers and modders who tinker and like power. The laptop format will flourish even for desktops, but desktop displays will be detached. A desktop will have a laptop base and the display of your choice, also short range wireless video will happen. The portable laptop will be as it is now. The iphone style touch screen will replace the mouse pad and will incorporate pen pad functions.
Some voice control maybe akin to that Sync thing on car phones, no more than simple commands. I really don't want to talk to my machine. The cores of multi-core cpu's will be as separate computers so that real multi-tasking can happen. One can run the interface, another the computing, another the data management, the video, etc. I hope we don't soon see a single digital device that can swallow every digital device including the TV remote and garage door opener so if it breaks there are thousands of people standing in their driveways shouting why me at the same time, talk carbon footprints!
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scottgilbert
October 5th 2009
13. last one, think about those who have no voice, can not speak, what are we supposed to do? fart?
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awirthy
October 2nd 2009
12. First of all keyboards and mice are going anywhere, you can't everything with a touch screen that you can do with a keyboard and mouse. For certain areas and uses yeah, but it won't completely replace the keyboard and mouse.
As for optical disks, as long as there are bricks and mortar businesses there will be optical disks. Whether it be floppy disks or Blu-ray we have always had a physical storage medium, and there is no reason to stop now.
No 5 I find is complete ******** because the Xbox 360 aims toward a different demographic. It aims toward the more hardcore gamer, if they were to change their controller they would lose there advantage in that area and be challenging the Wii for the same audience in which Wii dominates.
As for the desktop PC as long as there are gamers, schools and tech savvy tinkerers around there will always be desktop PC although they might be a smaller market.
The quote "OS's will vanish and we'll have a monolithic browser that manages everything," is stupid because an OS is a browser that manages everything and there is no reason to replace it.
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jbrandonbb
October 1st 2009
11. I am the author of the article. It is really hard to imagine not using a keyboard, esp. as you are typing on one. But, on smartphones, they are already starting to disappear with speech-to-text searches. The PC itself is changing -- smartphones are becoming computers, so the full size keyboard has already gone away. Now fast forward ten years. We're not even sure what a PC will look like then, but it will be closer to an iPhone than a Dell.
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