Planning to buy a Blu-ray player? Hold on. It's already battling public indifference, technical problems, laughable features and downloadable movies. Is it any wonder Blu-ray is doomed to fail? Here are five reasons why it's heading for the grave...
1. HD movie downloads
OK so the picture quality's not quite there yet, but Bill Gates, Steve Jobs and others have already seen the future of movie viewing at home – and it doesn't come on shiny 12cm discs.
Instead services like iTunes, Xbox Live and Vudu already offer HD movies over the internet, enabling you to see the movies you want without having to hack down to the video store in the pouring rain.
With fibre-to-home broadband slowly being rolled out in the UK, who knows what the next few years will bring.
2.BD-Live
Have you seen the demos? BD-Live is a joke. It's a second-rate attempt to offer interactive features that HD DVD did first and much, much better.
It won't work on old Blu-ray players (they don't have the persistent storage) and may not work on new ones: it's not mandatory for Blu-ray player makers to include it in the hardware they sell.
Result? Large doses of confusion and frustration for anyone (un)lucky enough to buy a Blu-ray disc with BD-Live features on it.
3. Samsung thinks Blu-ray is finished
You know, the world's number one consumer electronics maker, Blu-ray stalwart.
Andy Griffiths, director of consumer electronics at Samsung UK, told Pocket Lint that Blu-ray would be dead in five years, and that it certainly wouldn't last 10.
He believes the format will be replaced by either a new kind of physical media – most likely flash memory cards if Toshiba's IFA 2008 keynote is anything to go by – or downloads. Go figure.
4. Sony thinks Blu-ray will be the last optical disc format
Blu-ray is not only finished in terms of spec, but it's also finished as a format. Optical disc technology has gone as far as it can go.
Or so says Take Miyama, Sony product manager for home video marketing in Europe. He told Electric Pig that "in the future, if [our emphasis] we have a physical media format, it will change physically. It won't look like an optical disc."
Talk of a 500GB Blu-ray prototype will only prolong the agony.
Sony has already hinted at its future direction with the launch of Bravia TVs in the US that can directly receive movies streamed over the internet. Blu-ray player not required.
5. DVD is good enough
Despite the fact that Blu-ray movies are expected to hit 12 million sales in Europe this year, they still account for just two per cent of video sales in countries like the UK.
Even by 2012 DVD will still have the edge – and that's according to the Blu-ray Disc Association's own over-enthusiastic predictions [PDF link].
The plain fact is that few of us are ever likely to swap extensive DVD collections for their Blu-ray equivalents, especially when prices for Blu-ray movies and players are still so high.
Given that many cheap DVD players now have some kind of upscaling capability, DVD will prove 'good enough' in terms of picture quality for many years to come.
Your comments (31) Click to add a new comment
bobafett34
October 14th 2008
31. What a load of ****
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duplic8
September 29th 2008
30. Thanks for this info, we will link to this from our <A HREF="http://www.blu-ray-duplication.eu">Blu-ray Duplication</A> site!
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jenniferfromsony
September 25th 2008
29. Check out the Sony Electronics Blog. A recent post talks about why Sony thinks Blu-ray is here to stay, despite contrary reports.
~Jennifer
Jennifer Peterson
Sony Electronics Blog Moderator
Sony Electronics
www.Sony.com/ElectronicsBlog
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hollywoodinhidef
September 16th 2008
28. 1. HD movie downloads
Bill Gates and Steve Jobs have no alternative than to try to compete with discs since they have no stake in the discs biz. The fact is that downloads are a tiny percentage of the overall disc biz and are not even as big or growing as fast as Blu-ray.
2.BD-Live
Just because you don’t see anything you like yet on BD-Live doesn’t mean there won’t be anything worthwhile in the next 6 months. It’s a bonus feature, not the primary reason to get Blu-ray – not yet.
3. Samsung thinks Blu-ray is finished
Even if Blu-ray were to have only five years of life left, that's a pretty long time when you consider Blu-ray has already been around for two years, so that would give it seven years of life at a most sonservative estimate. DVD was considered wildly successful when it peaked after just 10 years and has been flat or declining the last several years. But the five-year prediction is not validated by the numbers which show Blu-ray sales increasing enormously on all fronts this year (see #5 below).
4. Sony thinks Blu-ray is finished
DVD was finished spec-wise even sooner in its life-cycle than DVD. And that was the all-time biggest consumer electronics product success.
5. DVD is good enough
The UK is important but by no means the measure of global success. In the U.S. Blu-ray disc sales are selling 4.5 times greater every month this year compared to 2007. PlayStation 3 sales of two million units represents a 92% increase over 2007.
Prices for Blu-ray players are already down to less than $300.
“Good enough” has never been what consumers settle for and has not proven to be satisfactory for consumers after they get their first high-def TVs.
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plebism
September 15th 2008
27. Well I'm quite shocked at the extreme response from some people on this thread.
If the author of the original article is so biased, why is the uptake of HD movies so slow?
The truth is the difference from VHS->DVD is no where near as advanced as DVD(upscaled)->HDDVD therefore the desite to shell out for both a new player, maybe a new tv and also mayeb new discs just doesn't have the appeal.
I bet the majority of people slagging off the author and his article are probably PS3 owners. Sounds like the typical fanboy dribble ..... huh!! Now suck on that flame!!
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dave.k
September 15th 2008
26. I can't believe how rude some people are! Don't insult the author just because he has a different opinion than you. Argue your side instead. Insults just show that you don't have an answer, and you also lose respect in my books.
Anyway, now that I've said that, here's why I think the author is mistaken:
1. HD movie downloads. As you've noted, HD downloads are not anywhere near the quality of Bluray. To achieve that, 30-40GB downloads will be necessary. I don't see ISPs coping with that sort of traffic by 2012. Storage will also be an issue. For a reasonable library of videos, many drives will be needed, which is a further cost on top of buying the data. You may as well just buy the Bluray media. Also, it's satisfying, in a tactile sense, to hold the physical media, and pleasing to display it in a collection housed close to books and CDs.
2. BD-Live. That's a good point, although I've had limited experience with it. I expect that the abilities of BD-Live will be the same as HDi, it's just developer experience that is currently lacking. Apparantly the "Bonus View" Live feature is required on all new players, but you're right, a complete BD-Live implementation is optional. That's disappointing to hear.
3. Samsung. Whatever the director of consumer electronics thinks, the market will be decided by the consumer. If the consumer likes Bluray, then it will reign over downloads or flash. Personally, I don't see flash getting close to Bluray for at least 10 years. It's just too expensive, and will stay relatively expensive past 2012.
4. Sony. More rehashing of the above arguments. The counter arguments are the same.
5. DVD. I agree that Bluray will have to match DVD prices, to make headway. I can see that happening in the next few years, though. In fact, right now, the occasional Bluray title gets sold at a cheaper price than DVD, at least on amazon.com.
You're right that DVD quality is good enough for most people, right now. It won't be good enough in the future. As more people buy large screens, and more see the ability of HD, then they'll start purchasing new titles on Bluray, and repurchase a few of the favourites. Bluray can only grow from here.
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