Planning to buy a Blu-ray player? Hold on. It's already battling public indifference, technical problems, laughable features and downloadable movies. Is it any wonder Blu-ray is doomed to fail? Here are five reasons why it's heading for the grave...
1. HD movie downloads
OK so the picture quality's not quite there yet, but Bill Gates, Steve Jobs and others have already seen the future of movie viewing at home – and it doesn't come on shiny 12cm discs.
Instead services like iTunes, Xbox Live and Vudu already offer HD movies over the internet, enabling you to see the movies you want without having to hack down to the video store in the pouring rain.
With fibre-to-home broadband slowly being rolled out in the UK, who knows what the next few years will bring.
2.BD-Live
Have you seen the demos? BD-Live is a joke. It's a second-rate attempt to offer interactive features that HD DVD did first and much, much better.
It won't work on old Blu-ray players (they don't have the persistent storage) and may not work on new ones: it's not mandatory for Blu-ray player makers to include it in the hardware they sell.
Result? Large doses of confusion and frustration for anyone (un)lucky enough to buy a Blu-ray disc with BD-Live features on it.
3. Samsung thinks Blu-ray is finished
You know, the world's number one consumer electronics maker, Blu-ray stalwart.
Andy Griffiths, director of consumer electronics at Samsung UK, told Pocket Lint that Blu-ray would be dead in five years, and that it certainly wouldn't last 10.
He believes the format will be replaced by either a new kind of physical media – most likely flash memory cards if Toshiba's IFA 2008 keynote is anything to go by – or downloads. Go figure.
4. Sony thinks Blu-ray will be the last optical disc format
Blu-ray is not only finished in terms of spec, but it's also finished as a format. Optical disc technology has gone as far as it can go.
Or so says Take Miyama, Sony product manager for home video marketing in Europe. He told Electric Pig that "in the future, if [our emphasis] we have a physical media format, it will change physically. It won't look like an optical disc."
Talk of a 500GB Blu-ray prototype will only prolong the agony.
Sony has already hinted at its future direction with the launch of Bravia TVs in the US that can directly receive movies streamed over the internet. Blu-ray player not required.
5. DVD is good enough
Despite the fact that Blu-ray movies are expected to hit 12 million sales in Europe this year, they still account for just two per cent of video sales in countries like the UK.
Even by 2012 DVD will still have the edge – and that's according to the Blu-ray Disc Association's own over-enthusiastic predictions [PDF link].
The plain fact is that few of us are ever likely to swap extensive DVD collections for their Blu-ray equivalents, especially when prices for Blu-ray movies and players are still so high.
Given that many cheap DVD players now have some kind of upscaling capability, DVD will prove 'good enough' in terms of picture quality for many years to come.
Your comments (33) Click to add a new comment
72dufer
October 28th
33. Well everyone here gives great facts to hold up Blu Ray, and great Facts to kill Blu ray.
My opinion of Blu Ray is that eventually it will die out because thats what happens to technology. There will always be some new upgrade some new step up that will bring us closer to the better picture or the best sound. Because first there was little film reels, then beta tapes and vhs tapes, then laser discs I don't exactly know which was first. Then there was dvd, and now Blu Ray Dvd. I have a Blu Ray Player and I think it delivers an excellent picture with some movies. But with some older ones, the picture would be the same on dvd as it is on blu ray with the exception of a pop up menu and maybe better sound. Like I owned sleepy hollow on regular dvd and later purchased it on blu ray, I watched it on Blu ray and the picture wasn't much better then the one on dvd. So my point is specifically that some older movies cannot always be upgraded to look better than the would on dvd, rather than blu Ray. I'm not an expert on any fact. Hell if I was in a room with all of these experts on the specs of dieing blu ray and living blu ray I'd end up going back and forth because anyone can grab peoples attention with facts and quotes. I myself love blu ray, but when dvd came out it was the same. I think that blu ray dvds and upgrades of technology are what keep the movie businesses alive, maybe even our economy alive. Because the rate of tvs per room in ecah persons has I would assume has gone up in the last 10 yrs. and the rate of dvds probably the same. But I think there will always be a physical element to deliver movies like dvds, blu ray dvds, and eventually maybe little chips or something. And the reason why is because tons of americans don't like to download movies and use computers to go through to watch them. Specifically older americans who aren't very good with computers or those who really didn't grow up in the era of computers as a child. We will always need entertainment, because thats what america is about entertaining our people through movies, games, music, etc. But no matter how many times the media changes I'll always adapt to it and spend money to own it because movies are really the only things that keep me going anymore. so whatever the verdict is. I'll accept it.
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jioss
October 19th
32. Tech geeks have an extremely difficult time reading the consumer market. Most people that own blu-ray players talk as if everyone is on the verge of buying one, when the reality is that dvd is 'good enoughs' for most and even if they can tell the difference, it's not nearly enough to justify switching formats.
I'm not saying that Blu-ray is going to be visual equivalent of SACD, but we can't deny facts here, and the main point is that both uptake and interest are incredibly low.
12 millions blu-ray movies sold in Europe is not really a lot.
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bobafett34
October 14th 2008
31. What a load of ****
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duplic8
September 29th 2008
30. Thanks for this info, we will link to this from our <A HREF="http://www.blu-ray-duplication.eu">Blu-ray Duplication</A> site!
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jenniferfromsony
September 25th 2008
29. Check out the Sony Electronics Blog. A recent post talks about why Sony thinks Blu-ray is here to stay, despite contrary reports.
~Jennifer
Jennifer Peterson
Sony Electronics Blog Moderator
Sony Electronics
www.Sony.com/ElectronicsBlog
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hollywoodinhidef
September 16th 2008
28. 1. HD movie downloads
Bill Gates and Steve Jobs have no alternative than to try to compete with discs since they have no stake in the discs biz. The fact is that downloads are a tiny percentage of the overall disc biz and are not even as big or growing as fast as Blu-ray.
2.BD-Live
Just because you don’t see anything you like yet on BD-Live doesn’t mean there won’t be anything worthwhile in the next 6 months. It’s a bonus feature, not the primary reason to get Blu-ray – not yet.
3. Samsung thinks Blu-ray is finished
Even if Blu-ray were to have only five years of life left, that's a pretty long time when you consider Blu-ray has already been around for two years, so that would give it seven years of life at a most sonservative estimate. DVD was considered wildly successful when it peaked after just 10 years and has been flat or declining the last several years. But the five-year prediction is not validated by the numbers which show Blu-ray sales increasing enormously on all fronts this year (see #5 below).
4. Sony thinks Blu-ray is finished
DVD was finished spec-wise even sooner in its life-cycle than DVD. And that was the all-time biggest consumer electronics product success.
5. DVD is good enough
The UK is important but by no means the measure of global success. In the U.S. Blu-ray disc sales are selling 4.5 times greater every month this year compared to 2007. PlayStation 3 sales of two million units represents a 92% increase over 2007.
Prices for Blu-ray players are already down to less than $300.
“Good enough” has never been what consumers settle for and has not proven to be satisfactory for consumers after they get their first high-def TVs.
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