In the beginning, there was the Asus Eee PC. And the masses looked at it, and they found that it was good. Verily, they said, this Linux thingy isn't half bad.
And there was much rejoicing in the land of the penguin, for Linux had the market all to itself. A pox on all your houses, Microsoft, cried the penguin lovers. We have found a category in which you cannot compete! Your Vista is too bloated! Your XP is too dead!
Aha! Said Microsoft. We will resurrect Windows XP and give Vista a child, which will not be rubbish, and which will be pretty nifty on a netbook! Screw you, hippies!
"Lo!" said Henry Lee of Acer Computer Australia. "Our Windows XP netbooks are outselling Linux machines by more than 9 to 1! That's pretty much the case both in Australia and worldwide!"
And the penguin lovers looked, and they saw that it was true, and they wept.
Linux is an excellent operating system, but on netbooks it's gone from hero to zero in an incredibly short space of time. We can blame Microsoft for some of that - the hasty resurrection of XP along with attractive licensing deals has certainly persuaded manufacturers to offer XP and Windows 7 is specifically targeting the netbook niche - but there's more to it.
Linux was able to carve itself a niche because of a very temporary state of affairs. A year ago, netbooks couldn't run Windows. Now, they can and, despite the price difference (otherwise identical netbooks are more expensive if you plump for XP over Linux), Windows is what customers want.
It's all rather ironic. Vista was widely and rightly mocked for coming in too many confusing flavours, but on netbooks Microsoft is the one selling simplicity. The choice isn't seven versions of Vista versus one Linux: it's Windows XP versus a whole bunch of different distributions.
Remember, we're talking about ordinary people buying computers here, and we're expecting them to choose between not just one unknown operating system, but several: Linpus Lite (Acer), Ubuntu (Dell), a customised Xandros (Asus) and SUSE (MSI, HP et al).
The differences may be obvious to hardcore Linux evangelists, but do you think the average underpaid assistant in PC MegaBargainLand knows his Asus OS from his Eee OS? Because if he doesn't, you can be certain that the customers will be even more in the dark - and that means they'll stick with what they know.
Today's netbook market looks just like the rest of the PC market. People who know their way around Linux, or don't mind mucking about with their systems run Linux. People who don't care, don't have the time and think rebuilding a kernel is something from the Six Million Dollar Man just want to get online or bash out a letter. And for that, they're quite happy with Windows.
To an extent, open source scored a bit of an own goal when OSS turned up on Windows, because it delivers many of the benefits of Linux without the Linux bit. Worried about insecure web browsing? Yes, you could run Linux, or you could just install Firefox. Want an alternative to expensive, proprietary office software? Yes, you could run Linux, or you could just install OpenOffice.org. Fancy Photoshop but can't afford it? Yes, well... you get the idea.
Whether Linux is better than Windows isn't the point: it's that Windows plus a few open source programs or Google apps is good enough for most people. The majority of computer users aren't tech-savvy, don't care about the free software philosophy and have better things to do with their time than hunt for drivers, adjust to a new interface or replace all their favourite programs. So they stick with Windows on the desktop, and when it's time for another PC or a netbook, they'll stick with what they know.
The netbook numbers point to a bigger truth: when Linux is the only game in town, people use it and like it - but if you give them a choice between Linux and Windows, Windows always wins.
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Now read Windows 7: designed for a world in the cloud
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Your comments (11) Click to add a new comment
tracyann
March 5th 2009
11. quote::"Lo!" said Henry Lee of Acer Computer Australia. "Our Windows XP netbooks are outselling Linux machines by more than 9 to 1! That's pretty much the case both in Australia and worldwide!"
You can't find Linux netbooks, other than the Asus, in Australia with any operating system other than Windows, and even the Asus is hard to find in anything other than the 7 inch model with Linux. The manufacturers are simply not sending them to Australia. I know how difficult it is to source netbooks from wholesalers, in fact I have to buy them with windows, and upgrade them to Linux, in order to satisfy my customers with Linux powered netbooks, as I am told the manufacturers treat Australia like the a***hole of the world and dump what ever is left of the runs here, which means we usually only get Windows.
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jck0roses
February 26th 2009
10. Many less sophisticated users can't tell the office suite from the OS. I have listened to hours of complaints about Vista, almost all of which were actually about Office 2007. So, maybe Linux netbooks would sell better if Open Office looked more like MS Office 2003? Just a thought:)
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kasino72
January 29th 2009
9. @swiftnet: good point about long-term performance. I think it's an immediate issue too, because in addition to XP you'll need to load up on security software, so that's going to have a processor overhead and a RAM overhead that you won't have on Linux.
I think you're right about 12" netbooks too :)
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kasino72
January 29th 2009
8. @a.n.other/Frank: I really don't think it's a synthetic controversy, and the article isn't intended as flame bait. What's interesting to me is that in an exceptionally short time frame netbooks have gone from a Linux Trojan Horse - that is, people want netbooks, they buy netbooks, they get used to Linux and think hey! This Linux is great! I'm going to run it on my desktop! - to just another Windows box.
We're told again and again that the secret to tech is to build a better mousetrap, but the netbook situation suggests it's not that simple. And I think that's fascinating.
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swiftnet
January 29th 2009
7. This line is great... quote "I used to run Linux on my main desktop back in '98, and it was just a royal pain."
Dude, that was 11 years ago, lol.
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swiftnet
January 29th 2009
6. Windows is what people know. Ask a salesperson at an electronics superstore which OS should you buy and you'll hear 'Windows' because that is what they know. I use Linux for several reasons, I feel it is a superior OS. I prefer apps such as firefox, abiword, and gnumeric. The reason for the apps is familiarity, no idea if they are superior to MS apps, although I must say I don't have the same problems Windows users do. Current netbooks don't run Windows XP that well. They are sluggish and only get worse over time. Linux runs better on current netbooks. Most people don't know this. They also don't know that the linux netbook comes with a full office suite. Ignorance is bliss. What will happen is netbooks will grow to 12" get more power, ram and will increase in price. These will be winbooks. The smaller cheaper Linux based netbooks will still be around.
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kasino72
January 28th 2009
5. @a.n.other: that's part of the problem, IMO. Instead of shouting "Conspiracy!", what are Linux evangelists doing to engage the people who know Windows and who don't have the time or inclination to learn another OS? What are the benefits for people who currently use Windows, Firefox and OpenOffice.org?
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nicolasmerritt
January 28th 2009
4. @ a.n.other: I have no idea, and as the editor-in-chief, that's the way I like it
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kasino72
January 28th 2009
3. Chris, I don't think Microsoft is being a bully here: it's spotted a gap in the market where it couldn't compete, and it's changed focus to address that market. It's not bullying, it's sensible business. Microsoft has done some anti-competitive things in the past, and if it were paying OEMs to put XP in there instead of Linux then yeah, it would be anti-competitive. But it isn't. And that's the point, really: even though the machines are more expensive than the linux ones, people are paying extra for Windows.
The best comparison I can think of this early in the day is Blu-Ray. Is Blu-ray technically superior to DVD? You bet. Are there any Blu-Ray discs in my local supermarket? Nope. If the supermarket believed it would make money from selling blu-ray, it'd sell them. But right now the people in my town don't want Blu-Ray, and the supermarket isn't in the business of putting things on shelves that won't sell.
I don't believe the average computer user is thick. Far from it. But I do think most people buy PCs in the same way they buy home entertainment kit. A tiny minority give a **** about the particular chipset or how many bits the DAC has or whether the internals have been soldered with angels' hair, but most people go - does it do what I want? Is it going to annoy me? Can I afford it?
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chrisinbelgium
January 28th 2009
2. I'm so getting tired of these instigated Windows-Linux wars on tech blogs... It's all about market power anyway, nothing else. They sell the Eee in Belgium allright, but ONLY with Windows. The Linux version, you simply can't find it in the shop. Why? Just Microsoft being up to it's usual bully business tactics. And why do people keep buying windows anyway? Well now, let's see... I'll use a quote by Bill Gates, the Microsoft man himself: "The average computer user has the brainpower of a spidermonkey". He couldn't have said it any better.
And for all the Microsoft fanboys out there, yes, it's YOU, his customers he's talking about.
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thegilb
January 27th 2009
1. Linux is fun in a geeky kind of way, but ultimately it feels as though it's lacking. Personally I perform a lot of tasks with my computer, ranging from playing the latest video games to music production, software engineering and visual art, and all the other stuff imbetween, and simply Windows does it best. I've tried all the major Linux distros, I used to run Linux on my main desktop back in '98, and it was just a royal pain. Sure Windows has its problems, but all the best software *by miles* is developed for Windows.
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