In a fantastic piece of flame bait, Henry Blodget of Business Insider says that Android is going to do to the iPhone what the PC did to the Mac: blow it out of the water.
Blodget correctly says that in the 80s, Apple was an industry leader; ten years on it was a basket case. Why? Because of "its insistence on selling fully integrated hardware and software devices, instead of focusing on low-cost, widely distributed software." Really?
Blodget quickly glosses over Apple's other mistakes - "maintaining a premium price point, ditching its famous founder and spiritual leader, and developing clunker products" - because they don't matter. Apple's failure to licence its OS was what nearly killed it.
To put that another way, if Apple had kept Steve Jobs out of the picture and continued to make crappy products that cost too much, it would be doing fine, provided you could buy a Dell running the Mac OS. Really?
Apple didn't falter in the 1990s because of its closed ecosystem; it faltered because, in the excellent words of Infoworld.com, it had "unimaginative management" who understood chips better than they understood consumers, leading to "a chaotic product line that confused customers… [and] engineers' pet projects ran amok, leading to lots of half-baked technologies and a confused direction for the Mac".
Engineers' pet projects? Half-baked technologies? That sounds more like Google than today's Apple to us. But we digress.
Most wanted
Is the iPod/iPhone ecosystem closed? Yep. Does anybody care? Apparently not: last time we looked, Apple owned the MP3 market and had the most-wanted smartphone, too.
Those proprietary OS X machines aren't doing too badly, either: despite not letting anyone make OS X machines, Apple gets roughly half of all the cash spent on desktop PCs in the US, and a third of the money spent on laptops.
So how, exactly, is Android going to monster the iPhone? According to Blodget, "in its short life, Google's Android operating system has captivated developers."
All developers? No. Most developers? Nope. Apple's App Store is where the action is. This is not a Mac watching sadly while everyone develops for Windows: this time, the apps are on the Apple kit.
"The Droid and Google Phone are getting rave reviews," he continues. Which is true, although all the reviews I have seen say things such as "no multi-touch", "unimpressive media player" and "not as good as the iPhone".
"Technology tastemakers are thrilled with the platform's open-ness", Blodget asserts, waggling an accusing finger at Big Bad Apple and its treatment of developers. That's irrelevant. Ogg Vorbis is open and thoroughly approved by technology tastemakers. When was the last time anybody without a beard ripped their CDs into that format?
And while risible, Apple's treatment of the odd developer is only of interest to a few developers.
Is Android pretty nifty? Will it gain market share? Will a few iPhone refuseniks buy Nexus Ones? Yes, definitely and undoubtedly. Is the iPhone about to tank? Don't be silly.
iPhone going strong
This year it'll be in more countries, on more networks and in more hands than ever before, and don't forget there's a new model due this summer. iPhone sales have yet to stumble, let alone fall, and there's no reason to assume that they will any time soon.
If anybody should be worried about Android, it's not Apple: it's Microsoft and Nokia.
Let's say Android does become a really big deal. Will Apple care? We doubt it. Apple isn't interested in volume; it's interested in profitability. No matter how well Android does, it won't make money for Google in the way iPhones make money for Apple.
Which brings us to Blodget's final question. He asks: "Will Apple's insistence on maintaining end-to-end control, on trying to shoot the moon by owning every aspect of the mobile computing business, doom it to failure against a competitor hell-bent on achieving software ubiquity?"
No, Henry. No, it won't.
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Your comments (12) Click to add a new comment
martlikesstorms
January 11th 2010
12. @windymiller
Ah, some reasoned argument rather than blind invective - thanks, it's much easier to have a fun dialog this way.
Yes, my name is Mart - do you have a problem with me not hiding behind anonymity?
Blodget is arguing that today's Apple is making the same mistakes as Apple in the 90's while in this article, but Gary Marshall quite rightly points out in an aside that "Engineers' pet projects" far more accurately describes Google rather than today's Apple highlighting that even InfoWorld's more accurate analysis of why the Apple of 1990 was a failure does not apply to the Apple of today.
Are you saying Ogg vorbis is not a prime example of an open standard that is not more widely used and accepted than proprietary options? Would you prefer Gary mentioned Linux on the desktop instead?
In answer to the question "Is the iPod/iPhone ecosystem closed?" the fact that the iPod holds 70% worldwide marketshare and iTunes store 70-80% indicates that the vast majority of the market does not in fact care.
You are right to highlight those who jailbreak their iPhones as examples of some iPhone users who do care about Apple's control, but the fact that only approx 10% of iPhones are jailbroken shows it is not that prevalent.
The fact that you don't know of Henry Blodget is irrelevant to this discussion as it is the wide-spread argument that history is repeating itself that is being dissected here.
Lastly, extreme reactions, insults and negative attacks without any valid arguments are usually the traits exhibited by blind fans so please excuse my assuming you fitted that mould if in fact you are an impartial observer. ;-)
ciao
-Mart
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windymiller
January 10th 2010
11. So "mart",you have to sign your name at the end of your post in case we cant work what your called?
How about an answer to the ubiquity point.
What about this quote from marshall.
"Engineers' pet projects? Half-baked technologies? That sounds more like Google than TODAY'S APPLE to us. But we digress."
blodget wasnt talking about "todays apple",he was talking 90s apple.Talking of open-ness he dragged ogg vorbis from the bottom of the barrel just to come up with a contradictory point.He asks if anybody cares about the ipods/iphones ecosystem being closed.The answer is yes,thats why people all over the world are trying to jailbreak them.apples insistence on containing end to end control wont doom them, but it aint doing them any favours.
As someone has already pointed out,we didnt know who blodget was until marshall decided to attack his point of view.Even it isnt meant to be fanboyism,it certainly reads like it.
And finally.What do you think Im a fanboi? of exactly?.Are you assuming I want/own an android phone?.Are you assuming I hate the iphone?.you couldnt be more wrong.I would love an iphone.Im just not willing to be robbed blind in order to own one.
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martlikesstorms
January 10th 2010
10. So windymiller, still only insults to offer and no reasoned critique? A rather sad indicator as to who the real blind fanboi is methinks.
-Mart
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windymiller
January 10th 2010
9. Oh, and congrats on a fantastic piece of counter-flame bait;)
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windymiller
January 10th 2010
8. Total fanboyism.You say refuseniks like its a crime.Its the PRICE ye eejit.I didnt know who blodget or business insider were until they picked on your hypephone.
Google being "hellbent on software ubiquity"??? what about apple being hellbent on "we will take as much money as we can",gadget ubiquity.
boo hoo they picked on your phone:(
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martlikesstorms
January 9th 2010
7. Okay Windywoo and andrew.s, how about putting up some reasons as to why this article is flawed rather than just insulting the writer?
It was in fact a very well reasoned piece and illustrates how inaccurate Blodget's blog posting and other similar pieces around the blogosphere actually are. The "Android to kill iPhone" meme has been repeating ad nauseam in recent times and has desperately needed a reality check.
It is refreshing that someone at least has highlighted that the iPod/iTunes success Apple has enjoyed over the last 5-10 years is almost certainly a far stronger indicator of the future than the very different situation 20 years ago.
-Mart
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andrew.s
January 9th 2010
6. i'm with windywoo on this one, but i must say when techradars feeds show up in my rss reader, it is unabashedly pro apple...
enough so that i've often contemplated deleting it, unfortunately there is occasionally a good article buried under all of the apple propaganda...
but i digress, does it matter? if you want an iphone go get one, if you don't want proprietary closed phones, android seems to be the new go to choice.
and i must say the newest version of android (yes i am a user of it) is really nice. Nice enough that i'm glad i don't have an iphone...
finally, what difference does it matter again? microsoft is on more computers, do they win? no. neither apple or microsoft or even linux does, its an os, use what you want... and as long as technology is being innovative and improving we win...
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windywoo
January 8th 2010
5. Hate Apple? Yeah I probably do, but that isn't why I wrote my comment. Regardless of my feelings towards Apple they are big and ugly enough that they don't need another obsequious fanboy writing a column in their defence. The article he is referring to would not even have made it to my attention if he hadn't pointed it out. Why write whole other article about it? None of us had to be brought into this, it isn't news, it sounds like he has some sort of grudge against the author of the article.
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scotland369
January 8th 2010
4. This article is quite nasty but very, very true...
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viewroyal
January 8th 2010
3. @windywoo
Erm, thanks for that. I am glad to see that you hate Apple so much that you would write a comment to disrespect the writer of a well written and intelligent article.
:-)
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healeydave
January 8th 2010
2. Blodgets an idiot, no doubt writing against the majority of level headed bloggers in an vein effort to try and stand out and make a name for himself.
Unfortunately for him he's gone so OTT no-one will take him seriously.
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windywoo
January 8th 2010
1. Erm, thanks for that. I am glad to see that you love Apple so much that you would write an article to debunk one critic.
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