Update: We were right! Apple has sent out invites to an event taking place on September 12, 2018 which can only mean one thing - we now have the official new iPhone launch date.
TechRadar will be reporting live from the event at Apple's HQ, so make sure you put a note in your diary and ready yourself for another iPhone onslaught.
--- Original article ---
The new iPhone launch is likely just weeks away, and while Apple is yet to send out its annual September Special Event invites, we have a pretty good idea of when it'll take place.
TechRadar's new iPhone 2018 launch prediction: September 12, 2018
We've traveled back in time, revisiting every iPhone launch, to get a feeling for when Apple will be ready to reveal the rumored iPhone 9, iPhone XS (or will it be called the iPhone 11?) and iPhone XS Plus (aka 11 Plus).
iPhone launch dates
Tuesday September 12 2017: iPhone 9/XS/XS Plus
Wed Sept 7, 2016: iPhone 7/7 Plus
Wed Sept 9 2015: iPhone 6S/6S Plus
Tues Sept 9, 2014: iPhone 6/6 Plus
Tues Sept 10, 2013: iPhone 5S/5C
Wed Sept 12, 2012: iPhone 5
Tues Oct 4, 2011: iPhone 4S
Mon June 7, 2010: iPhone 4
Mon June 8, 2009: iPhone 3GS
Mon June 9, 2008: iPhone 3G
Tues Jan 9, 2007: iPhone
Apple was held its new iPhone launch in the second week of September every year since the arrival of the iPhone 5 back on Wednesday, September 12 2012.
Since then (including 2012) we've had six new iPhone launches, three of which have been held on a Tuesday, with the other three on a Wednesday.
Looking at the calendar for 2018, therefore, the week commencing September 10 looks nailed on for the new iPhone 2018 launch.
That means we're looking at September 11 or September 12 for the iPhone launch event, but Apple will be keen to avoid the former as the United States pays its respects to those lost on 9/11.
The Cupertino, California-based firm has avoided September 11 for every iPhone launch to date, and we see no sign of it changing course in 2018.
That means September 12 looks like the most likely new iPhone launch date.
How about Monday, September 10?
Monday, September 10 is also a possibility for the new iPhone launch, but we think it's unlikely for a couple of reasons.
First, Apple hasn't launched a new iPhone on a Monday since the iPhone 4 launch in 2010, and that was back when Apple used its WWDC Keynote to announce its next smartphone. History is on our side when we say it won't be a Monday.
Second, a Monday launch means more planning and logistics over a weekend, whereas launching on Tuesday or Wednesday allows at least one working day to make sure everything is in order (and to fly in press, fans and staff) ahead of the launch.
What about the week before?
"But what about the week before?" we hear you cry. "No way," we say.
Apple has kept to its second week of September schedule for six years now, and while shifting the launch forward isn't that far-fetched, there are a couple of issues there.
Monday, September 3 2018 is Labor Day in the US (a public holiday), which means a launch on Tuesday 4 is highly unlikely, as people will be flying back from family gatherings, and getting large numbers of attendees to a key launch event after a long weekend is a risk.
Then there's the small matter of the IFA 2018 in Berlin, Germany. The huge tech show runs until September 5, and Apple won't want its biggest event of the year clashing with any other potential tech news.
Could it be later?
The new iPhone launch has only ever happened later than the second week of September once, with the iPhone 4S being unveiled in October 2011.
Here, Apple was finding its feet with a new launch schedule after shifting from its WWDC event and ever since it's found that September fits the smartphone refresh cycle better.
All this means it's highly unlikely that Apple will opt to push its new iPhone launch any later – and if it does so then the reaction from the industry and media could well be one of panic – has there perhaps been some last-minute hitch with the new phones? – which may not reflect particularly well on Apple, whatever its reasoning.