- Windows 10 likely to lose users every October as ESU costs rise
- Three years of Windows 10 ESUs costs $427 per device
- Windows 7 took a big hit after the third year ended
The latest tracking figures from Statcounter have revealed Windows 11's market share continues to grow as more and more users make the switch, with Microsoft's latest OS accounting for 71.5% of all Windows installs as of September 2026.
This recent spike follows a relatively flat year for Windows 11 growth, and comes after the much-anticipated spike in adoption following Windows 10's official end of support in October 2025.
But another spike one year after that cut-off doesn't come as a surprise, because many users are now being priced out of Microsoft's Extended Security Updates (ESU).
Windows users ditching 10 for 11 due to ESU scheme
In 2025, organizations could buy into the ESU program for $61 per device, but this year, prices are set to double as companies face bills of $122 per machine. Prices will again double for the third and final year, too, bringing the total three-year cost to $427. That's $42,700 for a tiny fleet of just 10 PCs.
So while last year's extension was largely seen as buying time for companies that hadn't yet switched, it's now becoming too expensive for many to justify staying on Windows 10
But the story isn't as simple as companies not wanting to upgrade to Windows 11 – in many cases, specialist hardware or older, unsupported devices are imposing a technical block to the upgrade.
In the long run, it will likely mean that Windows 10 market share won't take a sudden drop, because most of the remaining devices will likely have a very valid reason not to be moved to Windows 11.
But we've seen it all before – Windows 7 lost support in 2020 when it still accounted for a quarter (24.9%) of installs – by the end of the third year of ESU, it had just a 9.6% share, but just two months after, it had fallen to 3.7%. So if Windows 7 is anything to go by, we can expect Windows 10 to stick around for a considerable number of devices until at least October 2028.
Follow TechRadar on Google News and add us as a preferred source to get our expert news, reviews, and opinion in your feeds.
