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The Iran war has driven up fuel and freight costs, exposed vulnerabilities in critical supply chains, and forced investors to rethink which technologies matter most in a more volatile world.
Two themes stand out: low-cost autonomous defense systems and energy technologies that reduce exposure to fossil-fuel shocks.
Manager of Aneli Capital and a certified financial analyst.
Evolution of drones
The war in Ukraine has already shown what that first trend looks like in practice. After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, one of Ukraine’s main defenses against the larger and better-resourced Russian army were Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones, which reportedly cost several million dollars.
Now, a few years later, Ukraine increasingly relies on domestically produced and locally assembled drones. For example, Vyriy, a Ukrainian drone manufacturer, says that it has localized production of frames, controllers, and radio control systems, while other components, like cameras, are provided by local companies.
Some of the company’s first-person-view drones reportedly cost as little as $500.
Another Ukrainian company, Wild Hornets, recently said a Ukrainian operator used its Sting interceptor system to shoot down two Russian drones located 500 km away, highlighting the increasing capabilities of low-cost defense systems.
Beyond the ability to test and improve drones in real-world conditions, the main reason companies can make drones cheaper and more effective is the ability to produce them at scale.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence announced plans to manufacture around 7 million drones this year alone, after producing more than 4 million in 2025. According to the ministry, currently, there are more than 200 Ukrainian companies involved in producing AI-powered drones.
Technological capabilities also play a significant role in making them widespread and effective. AI systems are being used on the front lines for target detection, obstacle avoidance, and battlefield data analysis.
Benefits beyond military
The Iran war was another reminder that warfare is changing, showing how cheap systems can make a difference. Iranian drones and missiles have targeted or threatened regional energy infrastructure, while the US, for the first time, used low-cost one-way attack drones modeled after Iranian designs.
Even before the war, investors had already ramped up investments in defense. Last year, venture capital investments in defense startups, including those that include dual-use technologies used by civilians, grew to $49.1 billion from $27.2 billion a year earlier, according to PitchBook calculations.
PitchBook also claims that autonomous systems were among the most funded startups, while counter-unmanned aerial systems and autonomous manufacturing are rapidly emerging as priorities.
I expect the Iran war also to drive even more investments in defense, particularly in drones and anti-drone systems. Oil-rich Middle Eastern countries are already looking for ways to defend themselves against Iranian threats, which will likely spur further investment.
Advances in military technology, together with falling production costs, could accelerate the development of civilian drone applications in package delivery, agriculture, aerial surveying and public-safety operations.
This can mean medicine arriving faster in remote areas, small household items delivered in minutes, and lower delivery costs. Recently, Barclays estimated that autonomous delivery costs could fall from $5–$7 per order to $1 in the long term, Reuters reported.
Energy security
Another area where the war is going to have a significant footprint is energy security. Rising oil prices due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a route that normally carries about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows, prompted the International Energy Agency (IEA) to call it the biggest energy crisis in history.
The head of IEA has warned that some European airlines have only six weeks of fuel left.
Even if the Iran war ends soon, it would be naive to expect such oil shocks to never happen again. This is another major energy shock within four years. The last one, which followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, accelerated the push into renewables, grid infrastructure, storage, and electrification, especially in Europe.
We are likely to see a similar pattern now, and the more negatively the war affects the economy, the stronger the incentive to reduce oil exposure becomes. This should accelerate the adoption of transport powered by alternative fuels, as well as the expansion of the infrastructure needed to support it.
Advances in technology can also help reduce dependency on oil. AI tools can help forecast electricity demand, making grids more efficient and reducing unnecessary fossil-fuel backup. It can improve the integration of solar and wind by predicting generation patterns more accurately.
AI can also optimize battery storage, deciding when to store power and when to release it to the grid. And in buildings, AI can help manage heating, cooling, lighting, and ventilation in real time, cutting energy waste.
For investors, that makes the takeaway from Iran much broader than a short-term spike in oil. It is a reminder that resilience is becoming a core investment theme.
In a world of cheap drones and expensive energy insecurity, the winners are likely to be the companies that can make protection cheaper and energy systems less exposed to geopolitical shocks.
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