I’m not buying the Tesla robotaxi hype – here’s why it’s still miles behind Waymo

• Tesla unveiled its “public-facing” Robotaxi service this weekend
• The service is currently an invite-only affair
• Reports suggest it is still behind Waymo and other rivals

In a surprising turn of events, Tesla has stuck to its recent timelines and actually kick-started a “public-facing” autonomous ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas this weekend.

Despite Texas lawmakers asking Musk to postpone proceedings until it had finalized and introduced new laws surrounding fully autonomous taxis, the controversial CEO has ploughed ahead anyway.

As a result, reports are surfacing on various social media networks that show the first few VIP invitees enjoying their debut Robotaxi experience.

However, this is a far cry from the futuristic Cybercab scenario that Tesla showcased at its Hollywood-spec 'We, Robot' event in October of last year, where bespoke Cybercabs ferried folks around a film set and the company’s Optimus humanoid robots served drinks to party-goers, only for the world to find out they were actually tele-operated.

It is a similar story with Tesla's recent robotaxi endeavor, as the “fleet” of 10-20 Model Y vehicles (sporting some Robotaxi branding) are strictly limited to a small and relatively uncomplicated area of Austin, Texas.

They also only operate between 6am and 12am and have a remote operator in the passenger seat to manually verify riders' ID and take control should a problem arise.

The Verge reported that some of Tesla’s driverless vehicles are also followed by 'chase' vehicles, presumably packed with engineers ready to jump in should there be an issue that both the in-car and remote operators can’t handle.

So far, only a select number of invites have gone out to predominantly “pro-Tesla” influencers, according to The Verge, with the initial invite list of test pilots reading like a who’s-who of the Musk sycophant contingent – renowned Tesla stock hype-man Sawyer Merritt being among those names.

Just like the 'We, Robot' event, this initial launch phase feels very much like a massive PR stunt, with the company essentially inviting the “general public” (read Tesla content creators) along for a ride during the very early testing phase, rather than during the widespread deployment of a legitimate, paid-for service.

Why Waymo is way ahead

It’s impossible to talk about Tesla’s robotaxi service without mentioning its closest competitor Waymo, particularly when Musk reportedly said after this successful initial launch phase that there could up to a thousand robotaxis on the road in a few months.

As a reminder, Waymo currently has a fully operational fleet of 1,500 vehicles on the road in four major cities in the US, with the areas in which it operates constantly expanding inside those cities. Anyone can summon a driverless cab with a simple app interface and they won't see a human inside the vehicle.

By the end of 2026, it hopes to have added another 2,000 vehicles according to a blog post by the Alphabet-owned company released in May this year, as it continues to ready a fleet of Jaguar i-Pace cars for autonomous driving.

Waymo also announced that it will be the first major client of Hyundai’s mass-produced Ioniq 5 robotaxi, which will help it scale even faster.

To think Musk will be able to reach this stage a couple of months after what is basically an initial testing phase is pure fantasy, especially as he insists on using a camera-only Full Self-Driving system that lacks the radars, Lidar and myriad other sensors that its rivals say is mandatory for a reliable and safe service.

Scaling up is the true test

Already, a number of videos have already surfaced on Reddit that appear to show Tesla Robotaxis behaving erratically, swerving at busy intersections and slamming on the brakes for parked police cars that aren’t even stopped in the road.

Granted, it’s impossible to verify the authenticity of a Reddit video, but there is a growing list of very public cases where Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system has been active during an accident.

The first few reviews of the experience seem largely positive, with most riders describing the drive as “smooth” or “human-like”, but these are still very early days.

First Tesla Robotaxi Ride [Full Drive] - YouTube

Watch On

Things will get far more complicated if and when Tesla legitimately has thousands of vehicles on the road, it removes the operator sat in the passenger seat, and it builds out its app so the general public can genuinely use it. I predict that being at least two years away.

Alongside Waymo, there are companies in China that are also racing ahead with active fully autonomous ride-hailing services. Baidu, WeRide and Pony.ai are already racking up hundreds and thousands of miles.

Just last year, Baidu reportedly sparked anxiety among taxi drivers, automotive brands and the working public after it launched a driverless service in Wuhan that offered rides of around six miles (much further than the reported four or so miles Tesla can currently travel) for around 50 cents.

It undercut journeys with a human driver at the wheel by around two bucks and naturally proved very popular, according to CNN, leading to panic that many jobs could soon to be at risk.

Once the legal framework is in place for the widespread rollout of autonomous vehicles, it wouldn't be too much of a stretch to think that the Chinese could swoop in and dominate the market... just like they have done with EVs.

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