VOD will impact on live TV, says study

Linear TV - going down?
Linear TV - going down?

Research into the UK's viewing habits has predicted that the amount of people watching traditional linear television will decline significantly by 2015 as video on demand becomes massively more popular.

Although much of Coda Research Consultancy's 'three-month extensive behavioural and market research project around VOD via TV and online in the UK' seems fairly obvious – the predicted figures are worth repeating.

Coda states that, by 2015, VOD will increase four-fold across both TV on-demand services and via PCs, whilst linear (or live TV) viewing will decline by 15 per cent.

Coda also believes that PVR viewing – while climbing by 30 to 40 per cent – will be impacted by people having access to VOD.

Project Canvas and Hulu UK

The research looks at the impact of the BBC's forthcoming VOD Project Canvas, and assumes that a commercial rival like the United States' Hulu.com will appear by 2010 as well.

Other predictions include a growth in piracy, "unless rights owners work closely with service providers to open up current and archive broadcast and movie video by way of aggregated services," explains the report.

"If Project Canvas passes and a commercial aggregator launches within the next 12 months, then overall ad revenues are set to increase," said Coda's Dr Steven Smith.

"However, if these don't launch, we forecast even greater reductions in TV ad revenues, and consumers will continue to be driven to illegal sources.

He continued: "The stakes are really high: either invest, draw up business, legal, rights and distribution models, and pass Project Canvas, or see revenues and audience decline dramatically, significantly threatening the sustainability of some current services."

Patrick Goss

Patrick Goss is the ex-Editor in Chief of TechRadar. Patrick was a passionate and experienced journalist, and he has been lucky enough to work on some of the finest online properties on the planet, building audiences everywhere and establishing himself at the forefront of digital content.  After a long stint as the boss at TechRadar, Patrick has now moved on to a role with Apple, where he is the Managing Editor for the App Store in the UK.