The extinction or the adaptation: how AI will impact SaaS market

In early February, SaaS stocks lost almost $300 billion in market cap in a single day. For some firms, such as Thomson Reuters, the drop reached 16%, the largest decline in their long history.

This fall was triggered by a single AI product from Anthropic. The company released the Claude Cowork plugin, which replaced dozens of SaaS systems with a unified interface. Users could generate legal documents or receive customer analytics just using one prompt.

Already heavily engaged in the AI race, investors saw a new opportunity that had largely been overlooked before. Claude Cowork showed that AI could disrupt the comfortable world of SaaS.

For decades, the market relied on a stable cash flow from large enterprise clients, but now companies may start asking: Why should they pay for hundreds of CRM or ERP subscriptions if AI can perform the same tasks?

Is AI really disrupting software?

Analysts often point out that AI still has not delivered significant productivity gains at the enterprise level. It currently accounts for only about 6% of the global SaaS market. At first glance, this may seem like a small share, but it should not be misleading, as AI is gaining value at a remarkable pace. In 2023, that share was less than 1%.

Many companies are already actively integrating AI into their operations. Fintech startup Klarna, for example, has stated that it is moving away from traditional SaaS systems in favor of AI. According to the company, one AI agent is already replacing 700 workplaces.

The company reduced its employee number from around 5,000 to 3,400 in a few months. If Klarna seems too technology-focused to be representative, it is worth looking at more traditional and conservative industries.

This market downturn sparked concerns among public figures about a coming “SaaSpocalypse.” While it may be too early to declare the death of an entire sector, SaaS companies are indeed facing a serious challenge. The major pressure is coming from AI, but it is pressing down from everywhere, all at once.

Challenges SaaS is facing

The first factor is Big Techs. Many of them understand that monetizing AI through private clients may be insufficient, so they want to build closer ties with the enterprises. For this purpose, they are building new interfaces and agent platforms similar to the already mentioned Claude Cowork.

For example, Microsoft added agent capabilities into Copilot for enterprise use, OpenAI is developing its enterprise platform Frontier, and Google is working on Antigravity, an AI-integrated IDE for software engineers. Considering the resources available to these companies, it may be hard for even the biggest SaaS players to compete with them.

Secondly, AI-native players that are also coming to the market. These companies build products from scratch and design them to solve specific business problems. Beyond the growing number of vibe coding tools for developers, there are startups across other sectors.

Sierra fully automates customer support using AI, Decagon works in customer operations, and Harvey focuses on legal work, literally replacing junior lawyers. These companies have smaller teams and a narrower focus, which makes it possible to offer cheaper and more efficient solutions. Many businesses may find it more convenient than paying for complex, multi-layered SaaS systems.

The third factor is internal pressure. AI disrupts traditional monetization models. SaaS companies benefited from large enterprise clients purchasing licenses at scale, often paying for seats just in case. In that sense, SaaS has often been compared to gyms, where the best customers are those who pay but rarely come.

Now, take into account how many subscriptions could disappear if, as Klarna claims, a single AI agent replaces the work of 700 employees. Of course, this may be a really ambitious claim, and we need some time to understand AI’s impact on business. But SaaS companies cannot ignore this shift. Since the simple and reliable metric of revenue per user is breaking down, they might find new ways to monetize business.

Can SaaS survive in a new environment?

Some may argue that SaaS as a business model is on the verge of extinction. In my view, this has little to do with reality. So far, none of the competitors has reached SaaS’s major advantage.

Here I am talking about accumulated expertise and access to unique business data. SaaS giants spent decades working with large enterprises, learning their processes and understanding their business logic. This knowledge cannot be replaced by a single interface, even if it is fueled by AI.

At the same time, both large enterprises and small businesses relied on SaaS for years and got used to it. It is unlikely they will abandon it overnight simply because of a new technology. But to remain competitive, SaaS will have to evolve.

One path is the direct integration of AI into existing products, and many companies are already moving in this direction. Salesforce launched Agentforce, a platform with AI agents designed to automate sales and customer support.

Adobe introduced Experience Cloud to automatically create marketing content and optimize campaigns. Customers with access to such functions within familiar platforms may prefer to keep relationships with trusted vendors. After all, many industries remain deeply conservative and don’t race for hyped products.

SaaS can also adapt through monetization changes. Companies are shifting away from seat-based pricing toward models based on usage or outcomes. Salesforce’s Agentforce, for example, combines pay-per-action with fixed subscription models, while ServiceNow is experimenting with outcome-based pricing tied to completed tasks.

Surely, some parts of the market are more vulnerable than others. Mid-sized and smaller SaaS companies without trusted expertise may really disappear. But the idea of a full “SaaSpocalypse,” as it is sometimes portrayed in the media, remains far from reality.

We've rated the best PaaS providers.

This article was produced as part of TechRadar Pro Perspectives, our channel to feature the best and brightest minds in the technology industry today.

The views expressed here are those of the author and are not necessarily those of TechRadarPro or Future plc. If you are interested in contributing find out more here: https://www.techradar.com/pro/perspectives-how-to-submit