It's not just RAM getting more expensive - the tools to make chips are set to explode in cost too, experts warn

• WFE, NAND and DRAM sales all rose more sharply than previous expected this year
• China, Taiwan and Korea remain the epicenter of chipmaking
• The semiconductor market has surpassed $200 billion in quarterly revenue

Global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales are forecast to hit $133 billion in 2025, marking a 13.7% year-over-year increase, with figures expected to climb to $145 billion by 2026 and $156 billion by 2027.

The figures come from a new SEMI report, which warns semiconductor manufacturing tools could be entering a period of rapid cost inflation driven by AI tool and cloud computing workloads.

According to the data, Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) costs are rising "as the industry moves toward high-volume manufacturing at the 2nm gate-all-around (GAA) node."

High-performance computing is about to get a whole lot more expensive

After seeing a 9.8% growth in WFE sales this year, SEMI predicts two consecutive years of 5.5% and 6.6% growth as chipmakers add capacity for AI accelerators, high-performance computing and premium mobile processors.

Demand for high-bandwidth memory is also pushing memory-related Capex higher, with the NAND equipment market set to grow an estimated 45.4% this year alone. DRAM equipment sales may also see a 15.4% rise this year.

"Investments to support AI demand have been stronger than anticipated since our midyear forecast, leading us to boost the outlook for all segments," SEMI CEO Ajit Manocha explained.

Most equipment spending is expected to be concentrated around China, Taiwan and Korea for the foreseeable future, but all tracked regions are expected to see growth over the two-year period SEMI has released predictions for.

Separately, Omdia tracked a 14.5% quarter-over-quarter rise in semiconductor market revenue, passing the $200 billion mark (and reaching $216.3 billion) for the first time ever.

"Demand for conventional DRAM is surging alongside HBM as AI inference workloads scale, driving an exceptional short-term price rally,” Senior Principal Analyst Lino Jeng noted.

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