eSIM adoption could reach a major milestone in 2026

(Image credit: Pixabay) (Image credit: Pixabay)

eSIM and iSIM success comes from connected logistics, smart energy meters and more IoT
There could be 210 million iSIM connections by 2028, up from 10 million in 2026
Push provisioning from servers is the new way to deploy IoT eSIMs

New data has predicted eSIM adoption is set to rise 30% in 2026 to hit 1.5 billion devices, up from 1.2 billion in 2025, but demand isn't actually coming from smartphones and consumer contracts.

The projections from Juniper Research claim connected logistics, oil and gas, and smart street lighting will be the three biggest sectors to push eSIM adoption, adding an estimated 75 million new connections to global networks in 2026.

This comes from the GSMA's SGP.32 IoT eSIM standard, which was launched in 2025 and which enables server-driven bulk activation for easier connections.

eSIM numbers are up - but not from phones

But the analyst firm is concerned about one key challenge for eSIMs moving forward – the industry is moving from a pull model where devices download one profile individually to a push model where centralized departments are provisioning eSIMs to multiple devices simultaneously.

With this shift in deployment patterns, Juniper calls for eSIM platforms to develop their own push-provisioning capabilities to support what looks to be growing enterprise demand for IoT eSIMS.

"For enterprise IoT users, it is inefficient to use a pull model to provision so many devices, and eSIM platforms must adapt," Senior Research Analyst Ardit Ballhysa explained.

Separate research from Juniper in 2024 also predicted a similar rise in iSIMs, which are similar to eSIMs but are built directly into existing device components, therefore they don't require a separate SIM module. A 1,200% growth from 800,000 in 2024 to 10 million in 2026 was predicted, driven by the GSMA's latest SGP.41/42 specifications designed to standardize and simplify iSIM deployment.

iSIMs find their uses in smart energy meters, remote logistics tools and small-form-factor devices requiring low power consumption.

Furthermore, Juniper expects 210 million iSIM connections by 2028.

"eSIM vendors must ensure that they provide standard-agnostic platforms that are flexible to upcoming form factors, standards and use-case demands," report author Elisha Sudlow-Poole wrote.

Outside of the realms of enterprise eSIM provisioning, new CCS Insight figures also show consumer demand is also rising, particularly for travel where a quarter of UK consumers have already used an eSIM to access local rates.

eSIMs are favored for their convenience and cost-savings benefits, with frustration over upcoming mobile price rises causing nearly half (45%) of Britons to use SIM-only deals and prolong device upgrade cycles.

Although consumer eSIMs retain the already-familiar pull model, it's clear that non-physical SIMs demand is on the rise and networks need to be prepared for that.

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