Planning to buy a Blu-ray player? Hold on. It's already battling public indifference, technical problems, laughable features and downloadable movies. Is it any wonder Blu-ray is doomed to fail? Here are five reasons why it's heading for the grave...
1. HD movie downloads
OK so the picture quality's not quite there yet, but Bill Gates, Steve Jobs and others have already seen the future of movie viewing at home – and it doesn't come on shiny 12cm discs.
Instead services like iTunes, Xbox Live and Vudu already offer HD movies over the internet, enabling you to see the movies you want without having to hack down to the video store in the pouring rain.
With fibre-to-home broadband slowly being rolled out in the UK, who knows what the next few years will bring.
2.BD-Live
Have you seen the demos? BD-Live is a joke. It's a second-rate attempt to offer interactive features that HD DVD did first and much, much better.
It won't work on old Blu-ray players (they don't have the persistent storage) and may not work on new ones: it's not mandatory for Blu-ray player makers to include it in the hardware they sell.
Result? Large doses of confusion and frustration for anyone (un)lucky enough to buy a Blu-ray disc with BD-Live features on it.
3. Samsung thinks Blu-ray is finished
You know, the world's number one consumer electronics maker, Blu-ray stalwart.
Andy Griffiths, director of consumer electronics at Samsung UK, told Pocket Lint that Blu-ray would be dead in five years, and that it certainly wouldn't last 10.
He believes the format will be replaced by either a new kind of physical media – most likely flash memory cards if Toshiba's IFA 2008 keynote is anything to go by – or downloads. Go figure.
4. Sony thinks Blu-ray will be the last optical disc format
Blu-ray is not only finished in terms of spec, but it's also finished as a format. Optical disc technology has gone as far as it can go.
Or so says Take Miyama, Sony product manager for home video marketing in Europe. He told Electric Pig that "in the future, if [our emphasis] we have a physical media format, it will change physically. It won't look like an optical disc."
Talk of a 500GB Blu-ray prototype will only prolong the agony.
Sony has already hinted at its future direction with the launch of Bravia TVs in the US that can directly receive movies streamed over the internet. Blu-ray player not required.
5. DVD is good enough
Despite the fact that Blu-ray movies are expected to hit 12 million sales in Europe this year, they still account for just two per cent of video sales in countries like the UK.
Even by 2012 DVD will still have the edge – and that's according to the Blu-ray Disc Association's own over-enthusiastic predictions [PDF link].
The plain fact is that few of us are ever likely to swap extensive DVD collections for their Blu-ray equivalents, especially when prices for Blu-ray movies and players are still so high.
Given that many cheap DVD players now have some kind of upscaling capability, DVD will prove 'good enough' in terms of picture quality for many years to come.
Your comments (39) Click to add a new comment
rudegur
July 13th 2010
39. Blu-ray may be replaced in the near future, but to say that it will be to downloading? People want something tangible, something they can touch, especially collectors like myself. I would hope we haven't gotten to the point where we're so lazy we can't get up a put a disc in the player. With a disc or any tangible media, we have more control over it than if we were to download it. Technology is so frustrating, it's not always reliable. Things break, and if the hard drive on your computer crashes, where does all the music or movies you have downloaded go? Sure, we can back things up, but if downloads are where the future lies, then we're going to need a whole hell of a lot of room on our hard drives. Granted, larger spaces become cheaper, but programs become more spacious. Who knows what will happen with that.
In the fight of Blu-Ray vs. DVD, why not just purchase a PS3? Even if you're not a gamer, you can still play your DVDs, your Blu-Rays, and hell, you can download movies to your hearts content. The PS3 up-converts,
and if you ever decide you might want to play a game, always there for you.
Many people still have their big, old televisions, but once those break, you won't have too many options left, and these new t.v.s are definitely nice. I think it's safe to say that whether or not Blu-Ray exists in the future, these new televisions will. So what's the big deal about going out and buying one now if you want it?
DVDs may still be good, and I'm sure as hell never planning on going out and replacing all of my collection with Blu-Ray. Sure, I may get excited about a few of my favorites, but there are so many that would be pointless. I have some friends that went and purchased Evil Dead on Blu-Ray. I see absolutely no sense in that, but some idiots are willing to pay for it. Price on the Blu-Ray discs definitely need to come down, but I don't think they are done, not by a long shot.
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ladyguenevere
May 22nd 2010
38. In the end it doesn't really matter. When I am ready to buy new video display technology, I will buy the best, most stable technology at the time. All technology, at this point in time, is obsolete by the time you open the box because of the speed of development today anyway. So when my Blu-Ray player dies, or when I am just ready to upgrade, I'll probably buy whatever is next like everybody else. My Blu-Ray player is backward compatible with dvds and cds, and it takes usb memory sticks as well.
The next media form will probably be closer to a usb memory stick just because of size and logic of developmental progress thus far. There will always be something better coming out next week or next year. If you always wait for the next thing, you will never be able to enjoy technology for what it is because you will always be frustrated. It's great to plan ahead, but don't let it paralyze you.
Finally, if you keep waiting for what comes out tomorrow, one day it will be here, but you won't. Be financially wise, but enjoy what is available today. Tomorrow will take care of itself.
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ste62
March 26th 2010
37. they said the exact same thing about dvd, blu ray is still going strong and i am sure it will till be around in 2012. people will always want to own a physical copy of their favourite movies.
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saucymonk
December 3rd 2009
36. Just imagine you have a collection of a couple of hundred downloaded movies and your HDD goes down. How long to redownload them all even on a fast connection, and maybe if you are limited to 3-10gb a month. Could take you a couple of years to get your collection back.
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mombasa1969
November 23rd 2009
35. Oh DVD, yeah forgot about that format, was using that last year I think.
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mombasa1969
November 23rd 2009
34. Lol what a load of **** this article is, you don't know jack Rob Mead.
I've just purchased a Blu-ray, so has my girlfriend, my nethew, oh and my sister too, not to mention all those I know that use their PS3's to watch Blu-ray's.
Not only that Blu-ray is ideal for the play back of MKV HD, ok not as good as a real Blu-ray movie, but ok to watch those mediocre movies that aren't worth buying.
I love my growing Blu-ray collection, nothing else even comes CLOSE, better than SkyHD (over priced ****), and FreeSAT is a joke.
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72dufer
October 28th 2009
33. Well everyone here gives great facts to hold up Blu Ray, and great Facts to kill Blu ray.
My opinion of Blu Ray is that eventually it will die out because thats what happens to technology. There will always be some new upgrade some new step up that will bring us closer to the better picture or the best sound. Because first there was little film reels, then beta tapes and vhs tapes, then laser discs I don't exactly know which was first. Then there was dvd, and now Blu Ray Dvd. I have a Blu Ray Player and I think it delivers an excellent picture with some movies. But with some older ones, the picture would be the same on dvd as it is on blu ray with the exception of a pop up menu and maybe better sound. Like I owned sleepy hollow on regular dvd and later purchased it on blu ray, I watched it on Blu ray and the picture wasn't much better then the one on dvd. So my point is specifically that some older movies cannot always be upgraded to look better than the would on dvd, rather than blu Ray. I'm not an expert on any fact. Hell if I was in a room with all of these experts on the specs of dieing blu ray and living blu ray I'd end up going back and forth because anyone can grab peoples attention with facts and quotes. I myself love blu ray, but when dvd came out it was the same. I think that blu ray dvds and upgrades of technology are what keep the movie businesses alive, maybe even our economy alive. Because the rate of tvs per room in ecah persons has I would assume has gone up in the last 10 yrs. and the rate of dvds probably the same. But I think there will always be a physical element to deliver movies like dvds, blu ray dvds, and eventually maybe little chips or something. And the reason why is because tons of americans don't like to download movies and use computers to go through to watch them. Specifically older americans who aren't very good with computers or those who really didn't grow up in the era of computers as a child. We will always need entertainment, because thats what america is about entertaining our people through movies, games, music, etc. But no matter how many times the media changes I'll always adapt to it and spend money to own it because movies are really the only things that keep me going anymore. so whatever the verdict is. I'll accept it.
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jioss
October 19th 2009
32. Tech geeks have an extremely difficult time reading the consumer market. Most people that own blu-ray players talk as if everyone is on the verge of buying one, when the reality is that dvd is 'good enoughs' for most and even if they can tell the difference, it's not nearly enough to justify switching formats.
I'm not saying that Blu-ray is going to be visual equivalent of SACD, but we can't deny facts here, and the main point is that both uptake and interest are incredibly low.
12 millions blu-ray movies sold in Europe is not really a lot.
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bobafett34
October 14th 2008
31. What a load of ****
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duplic8
September 29th 2008
30. Thanks for this info, we will link to this from our <A HREF="http://www.blu-ray-duplication.eu">Blu-ray Duplication</A> site!
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jenniferfromsony
September 25th 2008
29. Check out the Sony Electronics Blog. A recent post talks about why Sony thinks Blu-ray is here to stay, despite contrary reports.
~Jennifer
Jennifer Peterson
Sony Electronics Blog Moderator
Sony Electronics
www.Sony.com/ElectronicsBlog
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hollywoodinhidef
September 16th 2008
28. 1. HD movie downloads
Bill Gates and Steve Jobs have no alternative than to try to compete with discs since they have no stake in the discs biz. The fact is that downloads are a tiny percentage of the overall disc biz and are not even as big or growing as fast as Blu-ray.
2.BD-Live
Just because you don’t see anything you like yet on BD-Live doesn’t mean there won’t be anything worthwhile in the next 6 months. It’s a bonus feature, not the primary reason to get Blu-ray – not yet.
3. Samsung thinks Blu-ray is finished
Even if Blu-ray were to have only five years of life left, that's a pretty long time when you consider Blu-ray has already been around for two years, so that would give it seven years of life at a most sonservative estimate. DVD was considered wildly successful when it peaked after just 10 years and has been flat or declining the last several years. But the five-year prediction is not validated by the numbers which show Blu-ray sales increasing enormously on all fronts this year (see #5 below).
4. Sony thinks Blu-ray is finished
DVD was finished spec-wise even sooner in its life-cycle than DVD. And that was the all-time biggest consumer electronics product success.
5. DVD is good enough
The UK is important but by no means the measure of global success. In the U.S. Blu-ray disc sales are selling 4.5 times greater every month this year compared to 2007. PlayStation 3 sales of two million units represents a 92% increase over 2007.
Prices for Blu-ray players are already down to less than $300.
“Good enough” has never been what consumers settle for and has not proven to be satisfactory for consumers after they get their first high-def TVs.
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plebism
September 15th 2008
27. Well I'm quite shocked at the extreme response from some people on this thread.
If the author of the original article is so biased, why is the uptake of HD movies so slow?
The truth is the difference from VHS->DVD is no where near as advanced as DVD(upscaled)->HDDVD therefore the desite to shell out for both a new player, maybe a new tv and also mayeb new discs just doesn't have the appeal.
I bet the majority of people slagging off the author and his article are probably PS3 owners. Sounds like the typical fanboy dribble ..... huh!! Now suck on that flame!!
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dave.k
September 15th 2008
26. I can't believe how rude some people are! Don't insult the author just because he has a different opinion than you. Argue your side instead. Insults just show that you don't have an answer, and you also lose respect in my books.
Anyway, now that I've said that, here's why I think the author is mistaken:
1. HD movie downloads. As you've noted, HD downloads are not anywhere near the quality of Bluray. To achieve that, 30-40GB downloads will be necessary. I don't see ISPs coping with that sort of traffic by 2012. Storage will also be an issue. For a reasonable library of videos, many drives will be needed, which is a further cost on top of buying the data. You may as well just buy the Bluray media. Also, it's satisfying, in a tactile sense, to hold the physical media, and pleasing to display it in a collection housed close to books and CDs.
2. BD-Live. That's a good point, although I've had limited experience with it. I expect that the abilities of BD-Live will be the same as HDi, it's just developer experience that is currently lacking. Apparantly the "Bonus View" Live feature is required on all new players, but you're right, a complete BD-Live implementation is optional. That's disappointing to hear.
3. Samsung. Whatever the director of consumer electronics thinks, the market will be decided by the consumer. If the consumer likes Bluray, then it will reign over downloads or flash. Personally, I don't see flash getting close to Bluray for at least 10 years. It's just too expensive, and will stay relatively expensive past 2012.
4. Sony. More rehashing of the above arguments. The counter arguments are the same.
5. DVD. I agree that Bluray will have to match DVD prices, to make headway. I can see that happening in the next few years, though. In fact, right now, the occasional Bluray title gets sold at a cheaper price than DVD, at least on amazon.com.
You're right that DVD quality is good enough for most people, right now. It won't be good enough in the future. As more people buy large screens, and more see the ability of HD, then they'll start purchasing new titles on Bluray, and repurchase a few of the favourites. Bluray can only grow from here.
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stewsofdoom
September 14th 2008
25. Oh, I could have argued that the eventual price drop in Blu-ray technology and 1080p large widescreen tv's coupled with the low bitrate of digital downloads will, as the world shifts over to a new paradigm in which digital downloads compete not with the sale of Blu ray disks but the RENTAL of blu ray disks, but it's more satisfying to say
DVD'S ARE **** DOWNLOADS ARE SLIGHTLY LESS SMELLY ****.U SUCK JUST BECAUSE U HAVE A SUCK *** TV DONT TELL ME WHAT TO BUY BLU RAY ROCKS SONY ROCKS U SUCK. UR JUST ****** THAT U BOUGHT A HD ADD ON 4 UR XBOX AND NOW HAVE NO MOVIES CRY TO MOMMY NOT US BEEATCH.
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zodiac_909
September 14th 2008
24. i think you are the biggest **** for brains i have ever had the pleasure of reading! and you should go die.
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rbrtchng
September 14th 2008
23. Sorry for double posting, but DVD is "good enough?" Have you actually seen a movie in HD? 300 in HD was my gateway drug into HD. Honestly, once you've experienced BD, anything less just won't cut it.
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rbrtchng
September 14th 2008
22. This article is biased. Why didn't they talk about a huge number of polls that indicate that the vast majority of consumers wants a hard copy of their movies instead of DD? Also, the internet is simply not fast enough to download HD movies efficiently. Not only that, most people don't have TVs with HDD in it. I don't care what this article says, it's already 2008, and people are barely getting into HDTVs let alone HDTVs with HDD in it. DD may take over, but it wont be by 2012. Maybe by 2015, maybe.
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soildcake
September 14th 2008
21. Did iTunes kill Cds? If everyone thought like you we would still be watching VHS. Yeah we don't need DVD we'll just upscale our VHS we don't need 5.1 surround sound, unnecessary. VHS is good enough
I wanna download my movies too bad I'll have to wait a day to watch them.
Once you've seen HD you can't go back. I bought Transformers, good movie a must buy for BD owners.
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