Facebook might not hold onto its huge success for much longer, thinks Malcolm Gladwell, author of The Tipping Point, Blink and Outliers.
The author, whose books have dealt with what defines popularity and what underlies decisions, told RIM's Wireless Enterprise Symposium that what makes Facebook different is not just the social networking phenomenon or the number of users it has, but the age and attention span of those users.
"For the first time in history, consumer patterns are being driven by adolescents," says Gladwell. "It has never been the case before that the driving consumer force was adolescents."
The generation gap is more than a matter of taste, he claims. "They're not like the rest of us. They're weird! They have an appetite for change and complexity most of us don't. They have no commitment to any formal positions."
And the explanation for the success of simple apps on Facebook? "They also have a lot of time that the rest of us don't. Their pattern of technology use is profoundly different from the rest of us."
But growing up with Facebook may not mean staying on Facebook.
"When your innovation is being driven by adolescent patterns, you have something that's profoundly unstable," says Gladwell. "When people say to me that Facebook is the future, I say maybe not. Maybe it is, but five years ago they were all into Friendster. Where is Friendster now? Where is MySpace for heaven's sake?
"Whenever you have a significant component of the innovation stream being driven by adolescents, the only thing you can say is we're going to be the fastest ever reactor."
Shift in ambitions
Gladwell also explained that the current economic situation may cause a major shift in where young achievers concentrate their efforts when looking for employment. And this may mean an increase in the number of innovative competitors in the social networking market, or even a complete challenge to the way businesses are run.
"The decline of Wall Street means we are redirecting the imaginative priorities of an entire generation of people." says Gladwell. "It is astounding what percentage of very bright, very driven people from around the world went into financial services over the last 15 years.
"That human capital is being and will be redirected. It will be an amazing thing when the smart kid coming out of MIT says 'I'm not going to Goldman Sachs. I want to do something more productive with my life'."
If something 'more productive' turns out to be a start-up, Gladwell encourages them to change the rules that are set up by large companies and institutions to protect their own position - and if they get to be successful by changing the rules and working harder, to remember that was the key to their success.
"Start-ups start out with an aggressive mindset then they get to think their success is due to something else," explains Gladwell.
And that makes them just like the dinosaurs they used to challenge.
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Your comments (6) Click to add a new comment
troyhark
May 8th 2009
6. I know an awful lot of people who use Facebook and have not been teens for quite sometime. So thinking it's just teens who use it is an iffy assumption.
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zoheb
May 8th 2009
5. Nice post. I always wanted to read Gladwells book 'Blink'. I think its about time I do.
He makes a valid point about the 'fad' mindset of youngsters. But as long as Facebook changes with the times and keeps in touch with its users, then I dont see too much of a problem for them.
Zoheb
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proporiton
May 7th 2009
4. Where is Friendster now? Where is MySpace for heaven's sake?.... they got beaten by there successors. its as simple as that. and to say "They're not like the rest of us. They're weird!" just means that this guy has not take the time to understand the younger generation. plus the fact that facebook has all age groups on it really defeats this guys argument. what a waste of an article i want my 5 mins back.
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cameragrrl
May 7th 2009
3. Where has Malcolm Gladwell been, under a rock? "For the first time in history, consumer patterns are being driven by adolescents. It has never been the case before that the driving consumer force was adolescents." ?!? This has been going on for more than a decade! This is not news, nor is it new. Ask any parent of a teen or tween girl who's been shopping for clothes that aren't of the kinder**** variety. Before Hannah it was Britney, and that's when the adults handed over their good sense with their credit cards.
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mcphooey
May 7th 2009
2. @m185874 – couldn’t agree more. Self professed Gurus and “Analysts” are really annoying.
IMHO Facebook will be around for a long while. It is the biggest and best social networking site and that gives it staying power. It’s like Google is the biggest and best search engine, doesn't matter what the others do people know it works and works well, unlikely to change bar a major catastrophe.
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m185874
May 7th 2009
1. People like Gladwell and other "Professors of the Bleedin' Obvious" irritate me no end. They serve no useful purpose and the sum total of all their scholarly pontifications is "things change".
How and why these people achieve guru status is quite beyond my understanding.
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