A leading games industry analyst has claimed that Xbox 360's forthcoming Project Natal motion control system will outsell Sony's competing PlayStation Arc system by 5 to 1.
Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter makes the bold prediction that Xbox 360's Natal add-on will considerably outsell the PS3's "Arc" motion control camera.
"I think that the Sony motion controller will have some problems gaining traction, since it is not an "in the box" solution," said Pachter.
"That will probably limit adoption to one or two million at the outset. Natal is different... It's only one piece (the camera), is likely to be cheaper, and I think it will come in the Xbox 360 package with new consoles once launched, meaning far deeper penetration."
Games games games
The real decider will be the quality of the games that Sony and Microsoft and their respective third party publishing partners can create for the two different motion control gaming systems.
"Sony's internal development is top notch," concedes Pachter, "so I expect the launch titles to be fun, and likely on par with Wii Sports for quality, but ultimately, I think that the motion controller will only sell to 20% or less of the PS3 audience, limiting it's appeal to third party publishers.
"A year or so after launch, there will be 10 million [Project Natal units] out there, which will probably attract more third party support. Also, I think Microsoft will subsidize third party development to make it a success.
Via The Guardian
Your comments (3) Click to add a new comment
sirspoon
February 22nd 2010
3. will be interesting to see how the 3D PS3 firmware upgrade/3D gaming influences arc sales, I would have thought the two technologies compliment eachother well.
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bubbahotepuk
February 22nd 2010
2. I'm not sure either Arc or Natal will be massive successes; Wii has the casual gamer market pretty much stitched up, with the 360 & PS3 fighting over the hardcore market. I don't think motion-control is going to change the perception of your casual purchaser one bit, no matter how hard Microsoft/Sony push it. Wii is synonymous with motion control like Hoover is synonymous with vacuum cleaners.
If either Microsoft or Sony can make motion control appeal to their existing demographic, then they may have a hit on their hands, but somehow I can't see that happening (Halo + Natal? God of War + Arc? Just doesn't seem like they'd work well).
Incidentally, the Xbox 360 user base isn't that much larger than the PS3 user base, at 33.5 million PS3 versus 39 million 360s as of Feb 2010.
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optimaximal
February 22nd 2010
1. Pachter is usually good at his predictions, but this just sounds like common sense - you only have to look at the respective console demographics, penetration & directions to see why its clear Natal will go further than Arc...
- Natal is a new take on the motion tech whereas Arc is just Sony's take on the Wii)
- Microsoft are aiming for mass market penetration ('everyone must have one') rather than Sony complementing the existing hardware line-up
- The Xbox userbase is significantly larger than the PS3, meaning the sales to the existing userbase will also be much larger.
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